Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
OT 704: Europe's Changing Geopolitical Order: Security, Energy, and Democracy
Time:
Wednesday, 03/Sept/2025:
9:00am - 10:30am


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Presentations

Agenda-setting from the Kremlin: Presidential Communication and Policy Dynamics in Russia, 2014-2024

Olga Litvyak, Andrey Shadurskiy

University for Continuing Education Krems, Austria

The political calendar in Russia is traditionally dominated by several events: the Annual Presidential Address delivered to the Federal Assembly, the yearly press conference with the media, and the "Direct Line" with the President, a televised question-and-answer event with the general public. The Annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, typically delivered at the start or end of each year, plays a significant role in shaping the nation's policy direction despite lacking formal legal authority. The "Direct Line," structured as a question-and-answer event with de facto predefined questions, enables the President to communicate his views and policies to a broad audience in a talk show format. The yearly press conference is the main communication event for the media representatives. In 2024, the press conference and the “Direct Line” were merged into one event. Our paper focuses on these diverse and often overlooked sources to explore the dynamics of the presidential agenda in Russia over the last decade, covering the period from 2014 to 2024.Through a detailed analysis of these communications, we investigate the evolution of the presidential agenda, targeting different audiences. It allows us to trace the presidential policy priorities in the context of Russia's increasing isolation from Western values and partners, culminating in the initiation of a military operation in Ukraine in 2022. A preliminary analysis of the Presidential Addresses reveals a shift in policy priorities from economic development and social policies to an increasingly belligerent defense policy, providing insights into the broader political dynamics at play in Russia during this period. We use manual content analysis based on the Comparative Agendas Project coding scheme, adapted for Russia, to track changes in policy attention.



From Nord Stream To Versailles: The EU/Russia Gas Divorce

Thibault Besnier

UCLouvain, Belgium

This article studies the policy process that resulted in the EU deciding a phaseout of Russian Natural Gas importations. The European Union has historically been reliant on Russian gas importations to fulfill its energy needs. In 2021, Russia was providing 40% of the EU’ gas supply, a percentage that did not falter following the invasion of Crimea and Donbass by Russia in 2014. Yet, in March 2022, during the European Council Versailles summit, heads of State and Government decided to phase out the EU’s natural gas importations from Russia. This decision initially faced heavy resistance from key Member States such as Germany and Austria. Even today, it is not fully implemented: importations of Russian liquefied natural gas keep reached new heights, partly compensating the fall of pipeline gas importations. Despite the size of the challenge, and resistance from some Member States, the Union still decided a gradual phaseout by 2027. This article answers the following research question: How did the European Union decide to phase-out of Russian natural gas importations? This article mobilizes policy process and EU crisis literature to process-trace this decision. It relies on semi-conductive interviews with EU policymakers from the European Commission and EU Member States permanent representations, as well as media reports on the decision-making process linked to this decision. This article shows that the interplay of policy and political entrepreneurs, as well as the characteristics of the window of opportunity opened by this crisis led EU policymakers to reluctantly agree to this policymaking outcome.



The European Union as a Geopolitically Reactive Democracy Promoter? The Ukrainian and Turkish Cases

Vanda Amaro Dias1, André Pereira Matos2

1University of Coimbra, Portugal; 2Universidade Aberta, Portugal

The European Union (EU) has established itself as a distinctive actor in democracy promotion, making use of institutional, economic, and legal tools to achieve that purpose. However, its role as a democracy promoter cannot be fully understood without considering its geopolitical context. This paper adopts a neoinstitutionalist theoretical framework, focusing on how institutional dynamics and the role of governance networks shape the EU's external relations and approach to democracy promotion.

The research will focus on test whether the EU has been reactive in its approach towards Ukraine, following the 2022 war against Russia, and towards Turkey, after the 2015 refugee agreement. These cases offer contrasting contexts in which the EU’s democracy promotion efforts are influenced by both institutional constraints and geopolitical pressures.

Employing a multi-method approach, including document analysis of official EU statements, policies, and agreements, this study explores how EU democracy promotion has been transformed in response to external crises and security concerns. By adopting a comparative approach, the study will examine how the EU balances its democratic ideals with pragmatic considerations of realpolitik and security in its external relations with Ukraine and Turkey.

The analysis suggests that the EU’s democracy promotion is increasingly intertwined with its geopolitical strategy, as institutional and governance networks adapt to shifting security realities. The study will evaluate whether democracy promotion has become a reactive tool, instrumentalized to address the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine and the migration crisis in Turkey, ultimately reflecting the EU’s struggle to maintain stability at its borders while navigating internal and external pressures.



“Energy Security of Cyprus: An International Political Economy Approach”

Eirini Leoudi

University of Peloponnese, Greece

Energy security is one of the most important issues facing states in the international system, as geopolitical, economic, and technological developments, along with climate change, create the need for the reshaping of national energy policies. This paper aim to ensure access to energy resources at affordable prices and, by extension, enhance their security and role in the international arena. The purpose of this article is to study Cyprus’s energy security through the lens of International Political Economy, specifically from a realist perspective. The choice of the realist theory for studying Cyprus’s energy security was made because realism primarily deals with issues of security and national sovereignty. More specifically, the realist theory emphasizes national sovereignty and primarily military power, while also highlighting that the main actor in the international system is the state (Steans et al., 2010). Additionally, it is based on the assumption that states act rationally and, as such, seek to maximize their power and achieve their national interests within an anarchic international system (Chiaruzzi, 2012). Therefore, energy security is studied through the lens of realism, as it enhances a state’s national security and strengthens its role in the international system.

Furthermore, using multiple regression analysis, the article will identify the key factors influencing the energy security of the Republic of Cyprus and assess the complex interaction between political, economic, and energy-related parameters shaping the dynamics of the country’s energy security. Additionally, energy security in Cyprus will be defined as the dependent variable, with independent variables including GDP, foreign direct investment in the energy sector, geopolitical risk, and the energy policy that Cyprus follows in accordance with international law. Through this approach, the goal is to highlight the critical factors affecting Cyprus's energy security and offer valuable policy recommendations for enhancing the country’s energy resilience and stability within the regional and global energy markets.