Panel 604: Europe’s New Geopolitics - The Changing Contours of the European post-Cold War Security Order
Europe’s New Geopolitics - The Changing Contours of the European post-Cold War Security Order
At the end of the Cold War, the Euro-Atlantic security community was strengthened with the deepening and the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), the two main institutions representing the liberal international order. But the simultaneity of four recent European crises - the crisis of the euro, the crisis of migration, the crisis of European populism linked to the nexus of illiberal democracies, and Brexit - highlights the fragility and potential fragmentation of Europe. In transatlantic relations, the foreign and security policy of US President Donald Trump suggests the continuation of the global strategic retreat of the United States, and reinforces the potential for a division between Franco-German continental Europe and the Anglo-Saxon Atlantic. In addition, how Russia and China strategically view the international order and relate to the EU has been shifting in recent times. All this produces implications for European security, and the EU’s aim to become a more active international security and conflict resolution actor. The papers analyze these paradoxes and the current challenges of the growing strategic discrepancy of the Western security community model of international order and look at how the erosion of the rules-based liberal international order is influencing the security role that Europe can play in the emerging new geopolitical context.
Panel is co-organised by: Patricia Daehnhardt and Maria Raquel Freire
Presentations of the Symposium
Uncertainty and (In)Security in the Wider Europe: Managing Relations between the EU, Russia and the 'Shared' Neighbourhood
This paper discusses lines of continuity and discontinuity in relations between the EU, Russia and the countries in the so-called ‘shared’ neighbourhood, where the clashing of different projects has been evidenced in the annexation of Crimea and persisting violence in Ukraine. The paper argues the Western security community is facing in the European Eastern dimension serious challenges and that the prospects for thinking about a renewed European security regime are as distant as ever. The early 1990s seem to have put in place an order that unintentionally led to confrontation and insecurity in Europe, creating a sense of uncertainty in wider European geopolitics. The paper discusses in this way the different geopolitical and development models as put forward by the EU and Russia for the management of their neighbourhoods and the implications of their competing overlap for European and the international order.
The Changing Context of EU-China Security Relations
Over the past decade, the EU and China have expanded their relations beyond a focus on economic and trade issues into the sphere of security. Security encompasses a variety of policy domains—from traditional, military security to non-traditional human security. The record of actual EU-China cooperation has been mixed across policy domains with distinct temporal trajectories. The proposed research question considers why security cooperation has advanced in certain policy domains while it has faltered in others. This will include an exploration of the influence external actors, such as the US and Russia, have on EU-China security relations. The paper will contrast interest-driven and experience-driven explanations. The analysis identifies a number of events in EU-China cooperation that have been critical to initiate and enhance cooperation in specific domains. The working hypothesis is that experience with actual cooperation, rather than declared intentions, best explains patterns of cooperation over time.
Europe and Transatlantic Relations: The End of the Euro-Atlantic Security Community?
The transatlantic security community has come under considerable strain in recent years. Divergent transatlantic interests vis-à-vis crises such as the conflict in Ukraine, the civil war in Syria and Brexit, as well as the United States' strategic focus on the Asia/Pacific region and the unpredictability of the Trump administration's foreign and security policies are changing transatlantic relations. Washington’s new conditionality regarding US security guarantees for Europe and French-German initiatives for EU security and defense all produce serious implications for the European post-cold war security order and the EU’s claim to become a more active international security and conflict resolution actor. These new dynamics suggest the end of the transatlantic security community as it was originally conceived by Karl Deutsch (1957) and in which conflict between members is solved through institutionalized procedures of ‘peaceful change’. Building on the work of Deutsch and Adler and Barnett (1998) the paper analyses the transformation of this security community and how the growing strategic discrepancy within the Euro-Atlantic security community can impact on the stability of contemporary international security.