Conference Agenda

Coal is still a major component of the US energy portfolio, and the majority of coal-fired power plants currently generating electricity in the US have no plans to retire in the next 10 years.* The infrastructure associated with coal spans underground coal mines, surface coal mines, combined mine types, coal processing plants, “waste coal” sites, ash ponds and ash piles, coal stockpiles, artificial water bodies for cooling, and buildings and other infrastructure at coal power plants. Each of these components of the coal industry has affected the land that it occupies, causing additional climate change impacts through albedo change, loss of soil organic carbon, loss of aboveground and belowground biomass carbon, and loss of net primary productivity that would have otherwise occurred on the transformed land. In this study, we investigated the relative climate change impacts of the various components of the coal industry infrastructure. We delineated the infrastructure types at coal power plant, coal mining, and coal preparation sites and developed a parametric model to assess direct land use change (DLUC) and albedo change impacts. Simultaneously, we connected the components along their supply chains using US EIA data to assess the cradle-to-grave impact of electricity from coal, developing scenarios at the power plant level. We report the span of life cycle GHG emissions, the DLUC and albedo change impacts, and the relative contributions of different types of coal industry infrastructure. Preliminary results show that coal stockpiles cause the highest albedo change impacts per unit area, followed by surface mining and some of the cooling reservoirs. DLUC impacts are high for surface mining sites, and overall life cycle climate change impacts are particularly high along supply chains for “waste coal” in the northeast US. The results of this analysis highlight additional considerations for the climate change impacts of the coal industry.

(*We figure that this surprising fact warrants a source, even in an abstract: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50658 )

Biomass-derived liquefied natural gas (bio-LNG), produced from sustainable forestry residues, represents a promising alternative to fossil LNG, offering significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while maintaining compatibility with existing LNG infrastructure. However, substantial knowledge gaps persist in understanding the true environmental impacts of bio-LNG, particularly within intercontinental supply chains. Variability in upstream and downstream emissions, methane (CH₄) leakage rates, biogenic carbon accounting methodologies, and carbon offset strategies often obscure the actual performance of bio-LNG pathways, leaving these aspects inadequately addressed.

Despite Canada's substantial capacity to emerge as a leading supplier of bio-LNG for transcontinental markets, its decarbonization potential remains insufficiently quantified and poorly understood. This study selects Quebec as the base case for producing bio-LNG in Canada and transporting it to Wilhelmshaven Port, Germany, for residential electricity generation. Quebec was chosen due to its abundant pine wood residues and optimal Europe's shipping routes. The extensive supply chain considered spans seven interconnected stages: feedstock harvesting, transportation, bioconversion into biogas, biogas transport, liquefaction into bio-LNG, transatlantic ocean shipping, regasification at the destination port, and electricity generation and distribution for residential end use. Inventories were sourced from standard databases to ensure methodological rigor.

The global warming potential (GWP) over a 100-year horizon for this base pathway is benchmarked against fossil LNG and twenty-two alternative scenarios to evaluate GHG emissions reduction potential. Various carbon offset mechanisms, including emission displacement claims, were examined to ensure transparent evaluation of both direct and indirect emissions, emphasizing the need for robust accounting frameworks.

Preliminary findings reveal that, excluding carbon uptake credits, the Quebec bio-LNG pathway generates 560 g CO₂-equivalents (CO₂e) per kWh of residential electricity use, with electricity generation being the primary contributor to CO₂ and CH₄ emissions. Substituting fossil LNG with bio-LNG achieves a emissions reduction of approximately 15%. Comparative analyses of Alberta and British Columbia pathways indicate slightly higher emissions (560–610 g CO₂e/kWh), driven by extended ocean transport distances and regional differences in sustainable wood harvesting and processing practices. The relatively small disparities across pathways suggest that factors beyond emissions, such as economic feasibility, regulatory frameworks, and societal acceptance, are more likely to influence the commercial adoption of bio-LNG in Canada. Sensitivity analyses identified key emission drivers throughout the supply chain, while simulated CH₄ leakage rates of 1.5%, 3.5%, and 10% provided critical insights into their influence on overall carbon intensities. Furthermore, Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of over 101 parameters quantified the variability and uncertainty in total emissions.

This study provides actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, highlighting Canada’s potential to leverage bio-LNG for emissions abatement that can offset both domestic and international emissions. It underscores the critical importance of accurate biogenic emissions accounting, the implementation of robust offset methodologies, and the inclusion of indirect emissions in evaluations. These measures are essential for enhancing the sustainability of the bio-LNG supply chain and maximizing its role in achieving global decarbonization targets.

The transition to a low-carbon transportation sector is critical to achieving global climate goals. In Canada, policies such as the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard are accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the light-duty vehicle segment. However, heavy-duty vehicles remain predominantly reliant on diesel, as no mandatory electrification policies have been implemented for this segment. Furthermore, petroleum refineries, face significant operational constraints in shifting product slates without substantial capital investments, which limits their ability to adapt to evolving fuel demands during this transition. This study explores how these constraints impact decarbonization pathways in Canada’s transportation sector.

Using linear optimization, we assess the influence of inflexibilities in the petroleum refining sector on optimal decarbonization trajectories for transportation. The analysis is conducted using the Canadian Open Energy Model (CANOE), which is built on the Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis (TEMOA) platform to explore potential pathways under existing policies. Additionally, we leverage the Petroleum Refinery Life Cycle Inventory Model (PRELIM) to evaluate the environmental impacts and uncertainties associated with variations in crude oil quality, refinery configurations, and product slates.

Our results indicate that increasing flexibility in refinery product slates, particularly through international trade, can substantially influence optimal decarbonization pathways. Greater flexibility allows for better alignment between refinery outputs and shifting fuel demands, thereby mitigating operational challenges and enhancing the effectiveness of decarbonization policies. Moreover, the initial findings underscore the importance of integrated electrification strategies for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles to achieve meaningful emissions reductions and foster a more sustainable and resilient transportation system.

This work aligns directly with the conference theme by addressing the interconnectivity between energy systems, policy frameworks, and industrial operations. It highlights the value of systems-level analysis in identifying comprehensive strategies to support transitions toward sustainable mobility. By providing actionable insights, this research contributes to the development of multidisciplinary solutions for advancing low-carbon and resilient transportation systems.

With a high potential of reducing GHG emissions, the light-duty vehicle electrification transition in transportation sector is an important subset of the climate change mitigation solution space and assists with reaching the Net Zero target by 2050 in the United States. Despite the yearly increase of electric vehicle (EV) sales, gasoline consumption of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) still accounts for nearly half of all U.S. petroleum product consumption today, with a significant impact on the U.S. energy market. In our study we aim to simulate a well-to-pump gasoline supply chain framework, and project the future gasoline supply chain changes under various EV adoption scenarios in the United States through 2050. To project EV adoption at the national level, we employed a discrete choice model accounting for the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the ICEV and EV competing technologies, EV charging efficiency, and charging infrastructure availability. We also applied a time series model to predict travel patterns based on historic US National Household Travel Survey data fitted by a Weibull distribution and developed an improved mathematical model to analyze EV charging opportunities and quantify electrified vehicle miles traveled in our TCO calculations, considering dynamic factors like charging access and driving range. Based on the 2023 data of U.S. Energy Information Administration, we proposed a fuel production efficiency chain for the petroleum product production process. After integrating vehicle miles traveled and ICEV fuel efficiency, we evaluated the impacts of EV adoption in light duty vehicles under different future scenarios, including battery technological innovation, environmental policy changes, and EV price. We also estimated the impact of short-term change of crude oil and petroleum product demand in global market variations. Taking Inflation Reduction Act incentives including federal tax credit for EVs and home charging system as a baseline and preliminary scenario, there is estimated to be 15.6%, 35.6%, 43.0% reduction in gasoline supply in 2030, 2040, and 2050, separately, compared to 2023 baseline, which demonstrated the high sensitivity of the gasoline supply chain to vehicle electrification.

The results of academic research and collaborative efforts from supranational organizations, along with global media coverage, have provided compelling scientific evidence about the adverse effects of climate change. These complex phenomena have been recognized as a climate crisis and classified as a global emergency. Scientific reports highlight the risks and uncertainties posed by these effects at local, regional, and global levels. Populations are increasingly encountering more frequent and severe extreme weather events, including torrential rains, extreme heat waves, and prolonged droughts. Additionally, the warming of ocean waters threatens marine biodiversity and drastically affects continental wind patterns. In response to these conditions, pressure is mounting on national leaders, geopolitical forces with conflicting interests, business groups, local government officials, and other stakeholders. There is a growing global demand for more effective, innovative, and sustainable actions to address the climate emergency. Among the various socio-technological arrangements designed to regulate global climate, scientific proposals for a transition to a sustainable bioeconomy have gained significant attention on the agendas of national leaders, business decision-makers, and local policymakers. These proposals advocate for cleaner and more socially responsible biomass production chains, promoting the rational use of bioeconomic assets and co-creating value from bioresources. In this context, a critical question emerges: What are the opportunities and challenges associated with the ventures involving bioeconomic assets? Thus, this study aims to identify these opportunities and challenges. A literature review was conducted, utilizing data from Scopus and the Web of Science. The Prisma method was employed to gather scientific evidence published between 2015 and 2024. This exploratory and descriptive study processed the collected data using a qualitative approach. Artificial Intelligence tools were used only to improve this writing. The results revealed a set of opportunities and accompanying challenges related to productive arrangements of bioeconomic assets. Key opportunities include: a) enhancing the implementation of more sustainable socio-technical arrangements within biomass production chains, replacing non-renewable natural resources, particularly fossil fuels, which contribute to excessive carbon emissions; b) fostering coordinated actions through climate governance systems linked to collaborative and relational mechanisms at local, regional, and global levels; c) developing innovative local public policies aimed at financing more sustainable projects, aligned with standardized socio-technical arrangements for carbon capture and storage. The challenges identified involve: a) achieving consensus on the conceptual definition of bioeconomy term and its applicability across various economic sectors; b) raising awareness among heads of state, institutional leaders, business executives, and climate change skeptics, all of whom must acknowledge the scientific evidence regarding the genuine extreme impacts of climate change; c) directing substantial investments toward financing socio-technical arrangements for decarbonization, particularly projects targeting carbon neutrality. The findings of this study contribute to disseminating academic research and to stimulate further scientific inquiry among heads of state, stakeholders, leaders in public and private organizations, and other interested parties who make decisions on local, regional, and global scale.

The frequency, and severity of wildfires, driven by climate change, is steadily increasing in California (CA). Long-term forest management practices could reduce the impact of wildfires and provide lumber for long-lived wood-based building materials. This work explores the potential for harvesting softwood biomass in CA to mitigate wildfire risk and provide multi-decade carbon storage in the form of cross-laminated timber (CLT) for use in buildings. First, we assessed softwood biomass resource availability across various slopes in the wildland-urban interfaces (WUI) across CA. Then, we conducted a life cycle assessment of CLT considering mixed softwood sources (dead wood and live wood) to provide insights into emissions and energy demand associated with utilization of the wood removed for wildfire risk management. We found that the net life cycle CO2e of live softwood when including biogenic carbon storage in CLT is -619 kg CO2e/m3 CLT, respectively. The resulting insights and approaches from this study are broadly applicable to other forested regions and WUIs across the U.S. and the world.