While the US rapidly increases electric vehicle (EV) sales to meet decarbonization targets for the transportation sector, its second-hand (SH) EVs have entered international used vehicle markets. Introducing a radically new technology such as EVs without responsive measures in SH market regions may lead to an unintended transfer of economic and environmental burdens to lower and middle-income countries (LMICs) if they are unprepared to manage EVs, especially at the end of life (EOL).

It is unclear if SH exports provide receiving countries environmental benefits, particularly considering the battery state of health, the extended use, the electricity grids used to charge them, local maintenance and repair practices, and available EOL management systems for EV batteries. Additionally, exported SH vehicles could reduce the potential circularity of domestic EV battery production.

Previous EV lifecycle assessments (LCA) have failed to account for exports to international SH markets, assuming EVs operate only in the country where they are sold. Such studies have predominantly focused on developed nations with well-established waste management systems and robust regulation and enforcement systems, underestimating their full lifecycle impact in LMICs.

This research focuses on US-Mexico SH vehicle trade. According to National Customs Agency of Mexico (ANAM) data, Mexico is the largest export market for US SH vehicles, with over 9 million imports between 2005 and 2023, representing over 30% of registrations in Mexico during the period, with recent estimates suggesting the share may be higher due to illegally introduced SH vehicles.

We use LCA modeling to analyze the expanded lifecycle environmental impacts of US-exported EVs reaching EOL in Mexico.

However, Mexico is notorious for the informality of its waste management system, lacking dedicated EOL vehicle management regulation and capacity to enforce applicable health, safety, and environmental regulations. Thus, collection, dismantling, recycling, and data recording are primarily market-driven and carried out informally, posing a major barrier to obtaining comprehensive information on Mexico's EOL vehicle management system and its strategies to accommodate the increasing number of EVs.

To address this gap, we conducted qualitative research through semi-structured interviews with industry and public sector stakeholders. These interviews and an extensive literature review informed our LCA modeling.

Results offer insights into the extended lifecycle environmental impacts of US-exported EVs reaching EOL in Mexico, potentially informing regional policies to prevent the transfer of environmental burdens and maximize economic benefits to the region.

Key interview findings include: (1)Overwhelmingly, EVs reaching EOL in Mexico are SH imports from the US. (2)SH hybrid-electric vehicles are widespread, while SH battery-electric vehicles remain uncommon. (3)The most common chemistry of the spent SH vehicle batteries is nickel-metal hydride, but lithium-ion is increasing. (4) No official regulations exist for EOL EV batteries. (5)Recyclers do not accept spent EV batteries, leading to stockpiling and landfill disposal.

While our study focuses on the US-Mexico trade, our modeling approach and findings offer insights into other LMIC SH vehicle trade relationships, contributing to a deeper understanding of the nascent global SH EV trade implications.

In order to combat the increasing impacts of climate change, countries around the world are pursuing a transition away from fossil fuels and towards electricity and renewable energies. In pursuit of this, California has set goals to have Zero-emission Vehicles (ZEV) account for 100% of new vehicle sales by 2035 (California Air Resources Board, 2022). This goal was enacted to address the ongoing climate crisis, as vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) rely on highly emitting fuel sources. ZEVs are instead powered by hydrogen or electricity which makes improving the rate of ZEV adoption key to the sustainable energy transition. However, to meet these goals, California will need to accelerate ZEV sales, support, and infrastructure. In order to understand the existing efforts toward increasing ZEV adoption in California, we evaluated county- and city-level plans for ZEV adoption, their likelihood for success, and the constraints on their success. We implemented a detailed and thorough review of existing ZEV adoption plans and their current results. We will continue to focus on California ZEV adoption blueprints and plans to investigate the current state of planning and knowledge, as well as evaluate case studies from other locations to aid our conclusions. Through our completed and future assessments, we will determine the opportunities for adoption growth, build a solid understanding of existing barriers to ZEV adoption, and format a process for reducing barriers and improving adoption. Our current findings suggest that the greatest barriers to adoption are split between social, political, technical, and economic factors. Many existing plans reference infrastructure needs as well as strategies for reducing the economic burden for consumers. However, very few plans delve into the complex social and political issues associated with ZEV technology and widespread adoption. These issues include lack of access, negative public perception of ZEVs, cost of personal infrastructure, and concerns related to infrastructure and hardware for rural communities. This is the area that presents the most complex barriers with very few proven solutions. As we continue this work, I expect to find further barriers in the social sphere. To complement this work, we are exploring data to identify common socio-economic and ZEV adoption correlations. Once these correlations are clearly identified, we will utilize the results to identify outlier communities. We will find where communities have higher or lower adoption rates than other similar communities. Identifying these communities will open new areas for research and determine what steps can be taken in similar communities to boost adoption. The focus area for this research will be California, however, our findings, particularly concerning outliers and how to improve ZEV adoption, will be widely applicable and important as the world works to prioritize de-carbonizing the transportation sector. The big question moving forward is how our knowledge of existing barriers can inform the solutions and strategies that are implemented to improve ZEV adoption.

Electric vehicles (EVs) have significant sustainability impacts, not only in terms of shifting their primary energy source from fossil fuels to electricity, but also due to differences in their material supply chains and manufacturing processes.

This study investigates the effect of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives on U.S. electric vehicle battery industry in terms of supply chain decisions and technology choices, specifically examining the dynamics of different chemistry choices and production geographies from the perspective of cost minimization. Using the BatPaC model, we explore a number of scenarios based on potential future market developments to analyze the effect of the various subsidies.

We find that the total value of all IRA incentives exceeds the total production cost of EV batteries in the United States. Though the total possible amount of incentives in pure dollar quantities is slightly larger for batteries with the Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (NMC) chemistry, the Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) chemistry continues to dominate on a dollar per kWh basis due to its markedly lower manufacturing cost, as well as the lower number of critical minerals needed to meet the critical mineral requirement. Furthermore, these incentives can render U.S. batteries competitive even without meeting critical mineral requirements: the $45 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) incentive to produce battery cells, modules, and packs domestically is sufficient to be competitive with current modeled production in China. However, direct credits for critical minerals extraction and processing have very limited relative effect on the cost of battery manufacturing, rendering them less important in terms of shifting their geography of production from the perspective of an automaker trying to claim vehicle-based tax credits based on their supply chain.

Our analysis underscores the impact (or lack thereof) of upstream credits for critical minerals and components, prompting a re-evaluation of the feasibility of relocating challenging segments within the supply chain and their subsequent environmental, security, and economic implications. This research provides crucial insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders navigating the transformed EV supply chain landscape post-IRA implementation.