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Farming under Scarcity: How irrigation water shortages relate to risk and time preferences of smallholders in Kyrgyzstan
Marlen Tynaliev1, Abdusame Tadjiev1,2, Nodir Djanibekov1, Alexis Villacis3, Thomas Herzfeld1
1Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO); 2Samarkand Agroinnovations and Research University, Uzbekistan; 3Ohio State University
The study examines how recurrent irrigation shortages and extreme weather events shape the risk and time preferences of smallholder farmers in Kyrgyzstan. Using lab-in-the-field experiments with 425 farmers in the Jalal-Abad province, we assess how water scarcity influences economic behavior, particularly risk aversion, loss aversion, probability distortions, impatience, and present bias.
Our findings reveal that farmers facing frequent irrigation shortages exhibit higher risk aversion and impatience, while extreme weather events encourage more patient decision-making. Ethnic minorities and older individuals show stronger loss aversion, whereas more educated farmers display lower discount rates, indicating a greater willingness to invest in the future. Farmers in remote areas and those with poor irrigation infrastructure tend to overweight small-probability risks. Female farmers show greater risk aversion and impatience compared to male farmers.
These insights contribute to the broader literature on climate-induced behavioral changes, highlighting the role of chronic environmental stressors in economic preferences. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for designing policies for improving adaptive strategies and enhancing resilience of smallholders in water-scarce areas of developing countries.
Decoding the Label: How Design and Language Shape Georgian Wine Preferences Across Generations
Wine is Georgia's fifth-largest export commodity. Russia, the largest export market for Georgian wines, is an emerging wine market with shifting demographics. The purchasing power of post-Soviet Millennials has been surpassing that of the older generations, driving demand for different wine attributes. However, consumer preferences for Georgian wines remain an underexplored topic, especially amidst macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical shifts since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022.
This study uses a latent class logit model within a discrete choice experiment to examine the influence of wine label design, language, price, appellation, and medals on Russian consumers’ preferences. It also explores generational differences, distinguishing between intra-Soviet cohorts (Baby Boomers and Generation X) and post-Soviet cohorts (Millennials).
The analysis identifies three consumer segments in Russia. The first two segments of intra-Soviet generations prefer semi-sweet wines with Russian or Russian-Georgian labels and no medals. However, one segment prioritizes affordability and rustic designs, while the other disregards price and prefers modern labels. In contrast, post-Soviet Millennials in the third segment prefer higher-priced dry red wines, English-based labels, and medals.
Our results suggest that as Millennials gain purchasing power, export strategies should shift from semi-sweet to dry red wines, focusing on premium segments. Given Russia’s protectionist policies since 2022 and its focus on developing the local wine industry, Georgian wine exporters should diversify export markets to reduce reliance on the Russian market.
Socioeconomic conditions in Cambodian rice farming and their role in predicting farm succession: A case study in the Damnak Ampil irrigation scheme
Brian Beadle1, Fumi Okura2
1University of Greenland; 2Japanese International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS)
Like many regions, Cambodia has been experiencing increasing rural outmigration. Key drivers of this migration include pressures from climate change and the pursuit of improved quality of life. Farm succession has been suggested as a potential strategy to mitigate outmigration trends; however, more complex modeling is needed to understand the underlying socioeconomic drivers of it, particularly in the Global South. This study examines the relationship between farm succession planning and the socioeconomic conditions of rice farming households in the Damnak Ampil irrigation scheme. Based on survey data collected in late 2024 (n=199), we apply a random forest classification model incorporating random oversampling and recursive feature elimination. Results indicate that succession planning in this region functions more as a survival mechanism than a vehicle for intergenerational wealth transfer. Households most likely to plan for succession tend to have (1) low or negative farm net income, (2) more unreliable water access, and (3) mild to moderate food insecurity. These findings suggest a potential policy paradox: while improving socioeconomic conditions should be an essential first step, such improvements may reduce the likelihood of farm succession and could further accelerate outmigration.
