Conference Agenda

Climate change significantly impacts human lives and contributes to migration through stressors such as extreme weather events, sea level rise, and prolonged droughts. However, migration is not solely driven by climate factors but by how individuals perceive climate risks. Climate risk perceptions shape migration decisions in various ways, influencing whether individuals choose to leave or stay. Perceptions of risk are shaped by a combination of socio-economic conditions, political context, and cultural beliefs. Despite growing research in this field, gaps remain, particularly in understanding the multi-dimensional role of risk perceptions across different geographic and socio-economic contexts. This study synthesizes existing literature to explore the interplay between climate risk perceptions, migration, and immobility. It highlights the influence of climate-related stressors on decision-making and investigates how risk perceptions interact with factors such as livelihoods, in-situ adaptation, and place attachment. By analyzing empirical studies across disciplines, this research seeks to clarify the mechanisms through which perceived climate risks impact mobility patterns and resilience strategies.

Migration as a strategy for adapting to climate and environmental change has become a prominent narrative, yet this perspective has faced growing criticism. Critics argue that it places the burden of adaptation on vulnerable populations, can lead to maladaptive outcomes, and neglects immobility, as many individuals either lack the capability or the aspiration to migrate. Despite increasing recognition of these complexities, significant gaps remain in understanding how migration is perceived as successful, maladaptive, or somewhere in between by migrants, their households, and origin communities. This study addresses these gaps by examining migration as an adaptation strategy in the context of environmental and climate (im)mobilities around desiccating Lake Urmia (Iran), where water scarcity and salt storms increasingly threaten rural livelihoods. Based on 96 in-depth interviews and eight group discussions, we assess migration as adaptation from the perspectives of migrants and their origin communities. Findings show that deteriorating environmental conditions around Lake Urmia reduce rural capabilities to stay, contributing to high rates of rural-urban migration. While some migrants report economic improvements, many struggle with precarious employment and reduced well-being. Those remaining face deteriorating health, weakened infrastructure, and eroding social ties, exacerbating rural vulnerabilities. Our research thus challenges the oversimplified narrative of migration as adaptation strategy, revealing its complex and often unintended consequences.

Between 2015 and 2020, emigration from Western Balkan countries increased by nearly half a million people, driven by economic hardship, political instability, and conflict. Recently, environmental factors, particularly climate change, have emerged as significant migration drivers, especially in rural agricultural areas. Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events negatively impact livelihoods. However, individuals' perceptions of climate change vary based on socio-economic and cultural contexts, influencing migration decisions differently than objective climate data.

Despite growing research on climate-induced migration, Southeast Europe remains underexplored, with limited studies utilizing remote sensing data to assess climate shocks' effects. This study addresses gaps in understanding whether cumulative climate shocks and long-term trends impact migration intentions differently than isolated climate events. It also examines discrepancies between subjective climate perceptions and objective climate measures in shaping migration decisions.

Using a probit model, the study analyzes data from the RuWell project, a 2024 household survey in Albania, Kosovo, Moldova, and Romania. Findings indicate that cumulative climate stress over five years has a stronger association with migration intentions than recent extreme events, while perceived climate trends show no significant correlation. These insights are crucial for designing adaptive policies that mitigate migration pressures and enhance rural resilience.