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Session Chair: Arbnora Shala, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO)
Location:Conference Room I
Presentations
Migration patterns: The complex roles of poverty and weather extremes
Barchynai Kimsanova1, Thomas Herzfeld1,2, Atabek Umirbekov1, Hermans Kathleen1, Daniel Muller1,3,4, Nodir Djanibekov1
1IAMO, Germany; 2Martin-Luther- Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany; 3Humbold-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; 4Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
This study develops a comprehensive framework to examine the interplay between socioeconomic well-being, environmental shocks, and migration decisions by integrating nationally representative household data with climate indices. Employing a spatial multinomial logit model, we distinguish between domestic, international, and combined migration while accounting for the influence of weather extremes. Our findings reveal a non-linear relationship between well-being and migration: financial and structural barriers limit mobility for poorer households, middle-income groups exhibit the highest propensity to migrate—particularly internationally—and wealthier households favor international over domestic movement. These insights challenge deterministic climate migration narratives, highlighting the need for integrated policies that address poverty, economic mobility, and climate resilience.
County industrial structure change and rural intergenerational education mobility in China
Yifei Ding1,2, Gucheng Li2
1IAMO, Germany; 2Huazhong Agricultural University, China
This study aims to elucidate how county industrial structure change influences rural intergenerational educational mobility(RIEM) in China. Theoretically, we construct an overlapping generations (OLG) model incorporating skill-biased technological change (SBTC) as an external shock, conducting steady-state path analysis. Utilizing survey data collected from rural areas in Hubei Province, China, in 2023, matched with county-level panel data spanning 1991-2022, we investigate the long-term trends of RIEM and the effects of county industrial change. Our findings reveal that RIEM trends exhibit close correlations with China's development. County industrial structure adjustment and optimization demonstrate overall negative and positive effects on RIEM respectively. However, threshold model tests indicate that the promoting effect of industrial structure change on RIEM primarily manifests in early stages, while later phases reinforce intergenerational transmission. These core conclusions remain robust after addressing potential endogeneity through IV. Furthermore, heterogeneous effects emerge across gender disparities, co-residence differences, and regional characteristics.
Forced displacement of the population of Ukraine to rural areas: challenges of adaptation and prospects in the context of a military crisis
Iuliia Vasylivna Samoilyk
Poltava State Agrarian University, Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has triggered one of the largest waves of internal displacement in modern Europe. Many internally displaced persons (IDPs) were forced to leave occupied territories or areas of active hostilities, losing their homes, jobs, and social connections. A significant proportion of these individuals have relocated to rural areas, where they received temporary housing and the opportunity to survive. However, adapting to rural life presents a series of economic and social challenges.
Urban dwellers who were displaced to rural areas face significant difficulties in integrating into communities with a fundamentally different way of life. The lack of familiar urban infrastructure, social isolation, and limited employment opportunities force many IDPs to engage in agriculture. Yet, their previous experience either differs significantly (as in the case of those from large agribusinesses) or is entirely unrelated to farming. At the same time, the influx of people into rural areas can contribute to agricultural development, introduce new technologies, and promote economic growth.
This paper examines the socio-economic consequences of forced migration to rural areas, focusing on IDPs' integration into the agricultural sector. Using empirical data on migration and economic indicators from European countries, the study seeks to forecast the potential impact of migration on the development of Ukraine’s agricultural economy.
