Conference Agenda

Migration intentions and return migration: evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey

A scientifically rigorous methodological framework is proposed, employing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast migration volumes. This approach encompasses four sequential phases: establishing a comprehensive research database; specifying the structural from of the ARIMA model; evaluating the model and validating its fitness; and generating forecasts. The empirical analysis utilized UNESCO data on the total number of outbound internationally mobile tertiary students from Ukraine (both sexes) for the period 2004-2024. Findings revealed a consistent upward trend in migration from the early 2000s to 2019, punctuated by a sharp increase between 2014 and 2018, attributable to the 2008 financial crisis and the intensification of armed conflict in eastern Ukraine in 2014. A subsequent decrease in outbound Ukrainian students was observed in 2019, likely due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2022 Russian Federation's full-scale invasion of Ukraine precipitated a substantial surge in academic migration. ARIMA-based projections indicate the following student migrant figures: 82,028 in 2025, 82,588 in 2026, and 82,919 in 2027. These migration flow forecasts can inform the development of effective migration policies by governmental bodies, facilitating the attraction of international students and enabling strategic planning for higher education, encompassing resource allocation for funding, infrastructure, and student support services.

Climate change bears an increasing threat to rural livelihood in Central Asia being among the regions in the world most affected by climatic extremes. Proper adaptation to climate change will be indispensable for the local agricultural production systems to deal with these extremes and to counter-weight climate-related migration. Agroforestry systems (AFS) are considered to provide strong potential to enhance resilience of current production systems and rural livelihood due to their beneficial effects on micro climate, soil health, water retention capacity and diversification of income. Against this background, AFS may be advantageous and more economically profitable than non-AFS particularly in situations of climate risks, given their higher resilience and diversified production. To test this hypothesis in the context of Central Asian AFS, our study aims to understand the relationship between farm profitability and experience of climate-related shocks, comparing AFS and non-AFS across three nut and fruit production regions in Kyrgyzstan. We collected socio-economic survey data from 250 AFS and non-AFS smallholding farm households in the period of July to November 2024. Profitability analysis is conducted using capital budgeting techniques, regression models and Monte-Carlo simulation considering experienced climate-related shocks, applied coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies. The study contributes to our current understanding of climate-related risks on agricultural production systems in Central Asia and the potential of locally adapted AFS to enhance farm livelihood resilience taking a socio-economic approach.

The retention of young teachers in Kazakhstan’s rural schools poses a significant challenge, as many leave due to dissatisfaction, high stress, and demanding work conditions. Rural schools face unique obstacles, including multi-grade classrooms, poor infrastructure, limited teaching resources, and geographic isolation, but they also promote close community relationships and personalized education. Studies on the experiences of rural teachers in Kazakhstan remain limited.

This research employed an innovative photovoice method, engaging 8 early-career teachers from ungraded rural schools in the Kostanay and Karagandy regions. Participants documented their experiences through photographs and narratives. Four central themes emerged: lack of resources, isolation, a sense of belonging, and classroom experiences. Resource shortages, outdated materials, and poor infrastructure hindered teaching, while geographic isolation intensified loneliness. However, shared challenges strengthened community bonds, and homegrown teachers showed commitment to local education. Participants demonstrated creativity in resource-limited environments, but constant improvisation led to exhaustion.

To retain teachers, it is crucial to implement mentorship programs, reduce administrative burdens, upgrade infrastructure, and provide essential resources. These interventions can support teachers’ well-being, maintain their creativity, and improve the quality of education in rural schools, addressing a critical issue in Kazakhstan’s education system.

Land use change in agriculture is one of the most significant challenges facing rural areas in Iran, with far-reaching consequences for rural migration, quality of life, and sustainable development. These changes, primarily driven by economic, social, and legal factors, lead to a decline in agricultural land, erosion of social capital, and reduced production capacity in rural regions, thereby intensifying rural-to-urban migration. This study employs panel data time-series models (2000–2024) to examine the impact of economic factors, social factors, and legal policies on land use changes across different provinces of Iran. The findings reveal that declining agricultural income, rising living costs, and unbalanced urban-industrial development policies are among the key drivers of land conversion and rural migration. In addition to providing economic and social analyses, this study evaluates national and regional policy and legal measures aimed at managing land use changes and mitigating rural migration. The results suggest that reforming agricultural support policies, investing in rural infrastructure, and revising land use regulations can contribute to improving rural livelihoods, reducing migration rates, and preserving agricultural land. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers seeking to promote sustainable resource management and enhance the social and economic resilience of rural communities.

Coastal regions of Bangladesh have been undergoing profound environmental and socio-ecological transformations since the 1980s, driven by both anthropogenic and natural factors. Rapid land-use changes such as the expansion of shrimp farming alongside climate-induced phenomena, including sea-level rise, tidal surges, river erosion, and increasing salinity intrusion, have significantly impacted local livelihoods and food security, particularly for landless and marginal farmers. These environmental stressors have triggered a complex pattern of migration, with seasonal labour migration emerging as the dominant response and a key economic adaptation strategy. This study employs an empirical approach, drawing on in-depth interviews with local residents and migrant families to trace migration routes within Bangladesh. By mapping the movement of seasonal migrants, this research illustrates how migration patterns correspond to seasonal labour demand across different regions, including urban centres such as Khulna, Chittagong, and Dhaka, as well as proximate rural areas. While permanent migration remains relatively limited and primarily linked to educational opportunities for younger family members, labour migration constitutes a critical economic strategy, with remittances playing a vital role in sustaining local livelihoods. Findings suggest that migration flows are intricately linked to seasonal employment cycles, highlighting the necessity for further research to delineate the structural and non-institutional factors shaping these movements. This study underscores the importance of policy interventions to bridge existing knowledge gaps and mitigate the socio-economic and environmental implications of migration in both origin and destination areas.

Ensuring GP care is a challenge in many rural regions, crucial for both residents’ health and the attractiveness of these areas. Municipal Medical Care Centres (mMCCs) are seen as a promising solution, offering attractive working conditions for GPs. However, implementation experience is limited. This study analyses the foundation, establishment, and design of an mMCC in the rural town of Marienmünster, focusing on the founding process, hurdles, success factors, innovations, and the municipality's opportunities and risks. It is based on a literature review, structured docu-ment analysis, and semi-structured interviews with key actors. The analysis used qualitative con-tent analysis. Marienmünster secured local GP care by founding an mMCC as a GmbH. Success was due to strong problem awareness and cooperation with the existing GP practice. One of the hurdles is that the responsibility and distribution of tasks for GP care are subject to change. Marienmünster faces the challenge of avoiding staff shortages in the mMCC and counteracting inter-municipal competition. The municipality now has the opportunity to shape healthcare planning. The insights of this research can guide other rural regions facing similar challenges. With many GP practices being handed over, research is urgently needed to explore how healthcare can be integrated into health-promoting town development.

Private sector financing – next to the responsibilities nation states have to fulfil – to reach the global climate and overall sustainability goals is urgently needed, especially in times of increasingly tighter government budgets. At the same time, the consequences of growing temperatures can already be felt around the globe and have impacts on virtually every sustainable development dimension themselves. The “Contribution Claim” offers an alternative to existing and established corporate climate strategies such as carbon offsetting. In an interdisciplinary and inclusive multi-stakeholder research project, the Foundation Development and Climate Alliance examined and fleshed out its Contribution Claim Model aimed at helping corporations and other organisations to implement it into their sustainability efforts. After the initial formulation of basic principles, a guideline for implementation was compiled. Key outcomes of this analysis were to apply requirements for the companies that want to engage with this model, while simultaneously having requirements in place for the projects and measures that could be supported with it. By doing this, the Contribution Claim Model aims to ensure high quality and integrity for corporate sustainability strategies with outcomes that should serve climate action and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

In this poster, I present initial results from my doctoral research project on immobility processes in the Bengal Delta, India. My research focuses on the low-lying deltaic island of Mousuni, where rural agrarian communities facing sea level rise, cyclonic storms, and coastal flooding undergo land and livelihood losses. Through ethnographic fieldwork, I make sense of people's staying decisions on the island by uncovering local perceptions of habitability, grounded in subjective definitions of a 'good life' and traditional knowledge systems on the biophysical environment. The field data also points to the complexity of staying decisions that defy the binary labels of 'forced' and 'voluntary' as traditionally conceptualised in the migration studies literature. Furthermore, I also address how mobility practices, such as labour migration and relocation projects, may be integrally linked to staying decisions.

Rural areas face serious challenges due to low socio-economic potential. Improving living conditions requires targeted actions. This study compares rural areas in Ukraine and Poland, examining their characteristics, changes in living standards, and whether Poland’s transformation can serve as a model for Ukraine. The research poses several key questions: What are the features of rural areas in Poland and Ukraine?

A key focus is on territorial partnerships—Local Action Groups (LAGs)—and their role in rural development. The analysis is based on statistical data, scientific literature, and strategic documents. It explores rural areas’ status, key issues, and development trends. Factors such as administrative reforms and decentralization are assessed, alongside demographic challenges and employment levels in both countries.

Poland’s experience highlights extensive infrastructure investments, including sewage and gas networks, road improvements, and better access to social services. Territorial partnerships contribute significantly to local development. In Ukraine, reforms at the local governance level aim to strengthen rural communities. However, war has severely damaged villages and infrastructure in the east and stalled transformation efforts elsewhere. Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s rural areas have the potential for growth by leveraging decentralization and community-driven initiatives, following Poland’s example where possible.