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Session Chair: Mariya Yaroshko, German-Ukrainian Agricultural Policy Dialogue
Please note all presentations are virtual. Streaming into lecture hall. (Passcode: 547971)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to have far-reaching effects on all social and economic spheres of Ukraine but also on other countries in Europe and Asia. While negative consequences on agricultural production, trade and food security of net-importing countries have been debated broadly, this session aims to centre on less prominently discussed aspects such as higher education and research in Ukraine, mobility of migrants and refugees, and effects on Central Asian economies. Experts will provide spotlights on the most recent development. Furthermore, the contributions will link to the general topic of IAMO Forum 2022 by addressing the resilience of socio-economic systems.
Overview of the current state of education and science in Ukraine in terms of russian aggression
Polissia National University, Ukraine
General information and the frequently asked questions, including issues of preschool, school, out-of-school and inclusive education; vocational education and training; professional pre-higher and higher education; attestation of highly qualified staff; remote work and labor relations.
Presentation of the project proposals on the current needs of Ukraine's education system.
Stay calm and keep farming: short-term projections for agricultural markets development in Ukraine
Mariia Bogonos1, Valentyn Litvinov1, Olga Nykolyuk2, Petro Pyvovar2, Pavlo Topolnyckyi2
1Kyiv School of Economics, Ukraine; 2Polissia National University, Zhytomyr, Ukraine
Only two decades ago Ukraine’s grain exports were equivalent to feeding 40 mln people, and today - more than 400 mln. In 2019-2021 it accounted for nearly 10% of global wheat and 15% of corn exports, 15% of barley exports and nearly 50% of sunflower oil exports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine amplified the role of Ukraine in ensuring global food security. Blocked exports and endangered current planting campaign in Ukraine surged world market prices and risked not only to undermine country’s agri-food sector and overall economy, but also to starve hundreds of millions globally. The current study demonstrates the 2022-2023 perspectives of production, trade and consumption of the major agri-food commodities in Ukraine under the status-quo and open export routes scenarios. We use partial equilibrium modelling approach to arrive at quantitative estimates of these values.
Agricultural production and agrifood trade implications of the war in Ukraine for the economies of Central Asia
University of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan (Kyrgyz Republic)
The paper provides an early assessment of the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for agriculture and agrifood trade in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The assessment is based on available forecasts of key macroeconomic variables (economic growth, inflation, exchange rates) in these economies and in Russia, one of their key markets for agrifood trade, as well as on forecasts of international prices for Central Asian agrifood exports. The analysis focuses on the war’s transmission channels to the factors of agricultural production in the region, the Central Asian demand for imported agrifood products and the global and Russian demand for agrifood exports from these countries. No major changes associated with the war in the regional agrifood trade and agricultural production are expected apart from the possible growth in wheat and oil seed exports from Kazakhstan due to higher international prices.
Main transmission channels of the economic crisis from the Russian Federation and Ukraine in the regional economy (focus on Republic of Moldova)
Alexandru Stratan1, Victoria FALA2
1Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova, Moldova; 2National Institute for Economic Research
The military conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation increased the risks of national security and economic development prospects for the countries in the region, including Moldova that has a common border with Ukraine. Both Ukraine and Russia are expected to enter into a deep recession this year. Moreover, the crisis will expand in the region taking into account the major economic role in the world and regional economy of both countries. The presentation aims to bring into discussion the main channels through which the crisis in Ukraine and the Russian Federation will spread over the territories of these states, based on the case of the Republic of Moldova.