Relevance & Research Question
Facebook allows for direct communication with voters in the electorates. An issue that is divisive or polarizing on social media and political discourse is migration. This raises the guiding research question, of whether MPs who have positive or negative attitudes toward migration are more likely to speak in parliament on the issue or post about it on Facebook.
Methods & Data
This study compares the classical form of political speeches in parliament with social media communication on Facebook by members of parliament of the 18th German Bundestag (2013-2017). While prior studies compared political speech in parliamentary speeches and on social media focused on Twitter messages, this study uses a unique data set linking parliamentary speeches with election data, a candidate survey (GLES), and MPs’ social media communication on Facebook. The linked data allows to control for a number of candidate characteristics and test the influence of party or migration-attitudes on speaking and posting behaviour.
The first part of the analysis examines factors associated with general political communication activity in parliament and on Facebook and deploys a generalized linear quasi-Poisson mode, whilst the second part identifies migration-related speeches and posting using a dictionary approach and also analyses the association with candidate characteristics in a quasi-Poisson model.
Results
The first part of the analysis finds that party differences and candidacy play a role in speech activity, whereas being from a ’left-centrist’ party (DIE LINKE, SPD, GRÜNE) is positively associated with the number of Facebook messages issued by MPs.
The second part focuses on migration-related communication activity. Against the expectation that MPs with negative migration stances might have used Facebook more intensively to post about migration, the findings indicate that MPs who are in favour of migration were more likely to speak about migration-related issues in parliament and post about it on Facebook.
Added Value
The study uses a unique linked data set combining candidate studies with social media data and parliamentary speech data. The analysis could be improved by using contemporary large language models instead of a dictionary approach and the author would like to discuss added value with fellow conference attendees.