Conference Agenda

Are there reliable indicators that show how agriculture is adapting to climate change? Agriculture is considered the most vulnerable sector to climate change in almost every country in the world. Policy and financial instruments are introduced because agriculture is highly vulnerable to drought, storms, heat waves or floods. However, there is no clear guidance on what indicators can show the level of adaptation of agriculture to climate change.

Unlike mitigation, the extent and development of adaptation is more difficult to quantify. In the case of mitigation, it is easier to evaluate measures in terms of how much GHG emissions can be reduced or avoided.

For quantification of adaptation, however, there are no databases or official statistics available, and there is no consensus on which measures are considered as adaptation. Irrigation, for example, is often the focus of subsidy policy instruments, but it is highly investment and maintenance intensive and can cause serious environmental damage.

In the absence of guidelines, we have developed a set of indicators to show how agriculture is adapting, based on literature, statistics, databases, researches, policy and strategy documents and expert consultation.

These indicators include for example conservation tillage and soil cover practices in crop production, grassland cover and grazing intensity; for agricultural water management, water retention, irrigation practices, illegal irrigation and wetlands; health risk reduction measures in livestock production; the extent of damage to agriculture; behavioural change of farmers and health impacts such as mycotoxins.

We have prepared an Adaptation Report for the Hungarian agricultural sector, which includes a significant number of indicators. We have found that a number of indicators are suitable for monitoring adaptation in agriculture, but due to data gaps, lack of continuity in data collection, inaccuracy and low data quality, most of the indicators are not applicable.

We used geographic information methods to present spatial differences in the extent to which soil cover and conservation tillage practices are being introduced; how wetland creation is evolving; whether runoff slowing and infiltration is being supported on cropland; whether afforestation and landscape features are being established, among others. We aim to initiate the co-design of adaptation indicators.

The Sand Ridge in the Danube-Tisza Interfluve, within the Hungarian Great Plain, grapples with severe water scarcity due to recurrent droughts, significantly affecting agricultural activities and farmers' incomes. The combination of decreasing annual precipitation, increasing temperatures due to climate change, water management focusing on draining waters from the landscape, and other agricultural practices compound these challenges. While local and regional actors acknowledge water scarcity, they harbour diverse expectations regarding potential solutions. Some farmers, supported by the local government and associations, have cooperated voluntarily to conserve water and enhance agricultural efficiency. They have initiated landscape restoration using nature-based water retention measures to fulfil biodiversity and climate objectives. However, most farmers and local stakeholders anticipate solutions from external actors.

Over a four-and-a-half-year research period funded by the MOSAIC Horizon 2020 project, we investigate the motivations behind local land use changes. We initiated a science-policy process encouraging farmers and stakeholders to alter their existing practices, such as reducing groundwater over-exploitation, cultivating less water-intensive crops, and employing non-tillage farming techniques. We established a 'policy lab' to support multi-stakeholder planning and equip the local farmers' coalition with tools to incentivise key stakeholders to implement jointly defined sustainable land use plans. Inspired by the preliminary results of the first year and the intensive discussions around water management in Hungary, we focus on the policy processes influencing local water management and land use decisions.

Our research, rooted in participatory methods, offline workshops, focus group meetings, and semi-structured interviews with farmers, local decision-makers, inhabitants, experts, and activists, delves into prevailing circumstances and recognises that farm-level land use decisions impact not only individual farms but the broader local socio-environmental milieu. We aim (1) to share insights about the social and power dynamics of different actors participating in water and land use policy processes, (2) determinants shaping decision-making at local, regional and national levels and (3) to elucidate effective proto-policies for fostering transformative change with diverse local stakeholders possessing distinct interests, power and knowledge regarding land use changes, in a situation which is changing rapidly due to the clear effects of climatic changes.

North Africa faces mounting challenges as climate change exacerbates water scarcity and disrupts agronomic systems. This research explores the interplay between water resources, demographic pressures, and agricultural production, offering innovative strategies for resilience. Utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing, the study examines the spatial dynamics of water stress and its impact on agronomic practices in critical North African river systems such as the Nile, Draa, and Medjerda. Buffer zone analyses (10, 20, and 50 km) highlight areas of acute vulnerability where water shortages threaten food security and ecological stability. The findings advocate for adaptive water management strategies, including advanced irrigation systems, rainwater harvesting, desalination technologies, and wastewater recycling. Integrating spatial data with multi-criteria decision-making frameworks, this study identifies priority areas for intervention and optimal locations for infrastructure development. Emphasizing the importance of transboundary cooperation, the research underscores the need for equitable resource allocation and sustainable agricultural practices. This study provides actionable insights for policymakers, aiming to balance agricultural productivity with environmental conservation. By addressing the region’s unique challenges, it lays a foundation for climate-resilient strategies that secure water resources and bolster agronomic sustainability across North Africa.

Rural areas hold significant cultural and environmental heritage that represent resources to be valorised through active tourism and soft mobility recreation. A sustainable development approach, aiming to balance economic development, environmental protection, and the conservation of local traditions, can be obtained promoting and developing dedicated infrastructures, such as greenways and cycling routes, that can be extensively utilized both by tourists and local people.

Climate change has heightened flooding risks because of the proliferation of impermeable surfaces and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, not only in high density urban centres but also in the built areas of the rural landscape. Traditional drainage systems are often inadequate, highlighting the urgent need for innovative Nature-based Solutions (NbS) such as Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS), which manage stormwater effectively through natural processes.

This study is part of a broader initiative to integrate soft mobility infrastructures, such as cycling and walking, in the rural landscape to connect tourists and local people with natural and cultural heritage. Soft mobility supports active tourism, healthy recreation, and sustainable development, providing an alternative to car-dependent transport, reducing carbon emissions while strengthening local economies, culture and natural environments, by connecting rural and urban landscapes.

In this framework, the project focuses on creating a soft mobility connection between the EuroVelo 5 cycling route, which cross the Milano area, to the UNESCO MAB Reserve of the Ticino Park. The planning and design process have taken into account the specific Climate Change context and was based on the integration of the soft mobility topics with the stormwater management ones. The design process of the soft mobility infrastructure integrated various data sources, including digital terrain models, rainfall patterns, land use, soil properties, and the configuration of the existing drainage network. The case study of Casorate Primo (Pavia), a small agricultural village with urban centre vulnerable to flooding, will be presented.

The project highlights the potential of integrating NbS with soft mobility to enhance urban resilience to climate change, promote sustainable tourism, and preserve local landscapes.