Conference Agenda

In the early 21st century, democracies are increasingly confronted with the widespread development and application of Artificial Intelligence (AI). This technological advancement presents both opportunities and challenges for democratic governance, with the potential to either enhance or undermine democratic processes. Drawing on historical parallels, such as the influence of the printing press and digital media, AI is expected to transform politics, often benefiting certain actors or groups adept at leveraging these tools.

This paper explores the fragmented academic discourse surrounding AI and democracy, which spans legal, ethical, and societal implications. While some scholars warn of the risks posed by AI in manipulating political content and eroding democratic accountability, others argue that AI can strengthen democratic innovation by improving deliberative forums and enabling more responsive policy-making.

The complexity of this debate is further influenced by significant uncertainty due to the rapid pace of advancements in AI technology and its equally swift adoption and implementation across various sectors and domains. From a political standpoint, this aligns with the Collingridge dilemma, which underlines that emerging technologies are easier to regulate at an early stage, although their broader implications remain unclear, making the formulation of appropriate policies challenging. As technology matures and its integration into society becomes more widespread, policymakers encounter greater difficulties in developing and adopting effective regulations.

To structure this ongoing debate, this paper introduces a framework centered around the "four Ps"—polity, politics, policy, and polis—each representing a crucial dimension of AI's interaction with democratic governance. To explore future developments in this domain, the study employs the Delphi method, leveraging a variety of expert (academic) opinions to anticipate the most pressing issues in the interaction between AI and democracy over the next five to ten years. The results of the Delphi survey are mapped onto the four dimensions of the interplay between AI and democracy.

The first P, polity, examines the institutional frameworks within which AI is applied, focusing on the democratic structures that are either reinforced or weakened by AI. Politics, the second dimension, investigates how AI shapes and is shaped by power dynamics and political competition. The third P, policy, concerns the outcomes of the political process, which may include policy programs or legislation. Finally, the last dimension, the polis, refers to broader civic community and public discourse that move beyond formal institutional arrangements. This dimension explores how AI shapes civic engagement, public opinion, and the overall condition of the democratic public sphere.

By utilizing the four Ps framework, this paper offers a comprehensive approach for analyzing how AI influences—and is influenced by—democracy and democratic innovation at multiple levels. It also outlines both the positive and negative implications that may arise in this intersection in the coming years, based on expert opinions.

E-government services were launched with high hopes, including that they would improve citizens’ trust in government (Parent et al 2005; Welch, Hinnant & Moon, 2005). Evidence about macro relationships between e-government use and citizens’ trust is mixed but broadly positive (McNeal, Hale and Dotterweich, 2008; Morgeson III, VanAmburg, & Mithas, 2011; Pérez-Morote et al., 2020). However, much less is known about effect of citizens’ experiences of using online services on their trust. In particular, competence of administration potentially influences citizens’ trust and perceptions of the trustworthiness of online systems and, in turn, these beliefs feed into attitudes about cooperation, use of e-govt and legitimacy (Kirchler, Hoelzl & Wahl 2008; McNeal, Hale & Dotterweich, 2008; Van Ryzin, 2007).

We estimate the effect of e-government service competence on citizens’ perceptions of the trustworthiness of the administration and trust in the interaction. We use a realistic online income tax administrative task and experimentally vary competence through introducing errors in the process. Trust is particularly important for tax administration because cooperation is necessary for tax authorities to work, as deterrence is insufficient (Kirchler, Hoelzl & Wahl, 2008 Morgeson III, VanAmburg, Mithas, 2011). We experimentally manipulate different forms of error to compare citizens’ experience of competence with those experiencing administrative interactions containing errors. We estimate effects on multi-item measures of participants’ trust and their perceptions of trustworthiness of administration, using measures similar to those adopted in related contexts (Grimmelikhuijsen and Meijer 2014). We hypothesise that incompetence will negatively affect both trust and perceived trustworthiness. The online experiment with a UK sample (n=1600) will be pre-registered and conducted in late Spring 2025. The findings will improve understanding of the relationship between administrative competence and citizens’ trust in online government.

Kirchler, E., Hoelzl, E., & Wahl, I. (2008). Enforced versus voluntary tax compliance: The “slippery slope” framework. Journal of Economic psychology, 29(2), 210-225.

Grimmelikhuijsen, S. G., & Meijer, A. J. (2014). Effects of transparency on the perceived trustworthiness of a government organization: Evidence from an online experiment. Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory, 24(1), 137-157.

McNeal, R., Hale, K., & Dotterweich, L. (2008). Citizen–government interaction and the Internet: Expectations and accomplishments in contact, quality, and trust. Journal of Information Technology & Politics, 5(2), 213-229.

Morgeson III, F. V., VanAmburg, D., & Mithas, S. (2011). Misplaced trust? Exploring the structure of the e-government-citizen trust relationship. Journal of public administration research and theory, 21(2), 257-283.

Parent, M., Vandebeek, C. A., & Gemino, A. C. (2005). Building citizen trust through e-government. Government Information Quarterly, 22(4), 720-736.

Pérez-Morote, R., Pontones-Rosa, C., & Núñez-Chicharro, M. (2020). The effects of e-government evaluation, trust and the digital divide in the levels of e-government use in European countries. Technological forecasting and social change, 154, 119973.

Welch, E. W., C. C. Hinnant, and M. J. Moon. 2005. “Linking Citizen Satisfaction with E-Government and Trust in Government.” Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 15 (3): 371–391.

This study examines factors influencing citizen and civil servant support for digital public ser-vices in Switzerland. Using an extended UTAUT framework, the analysis identifies perfor-mance expectancy, effort expectancy, digital competencies, organizational transformation, and trust as core predictors. Survey data from 1,000 respondents across three sectors (gen-eral population, core public administration, and the broader public sector) reveal that digital competencies and perceived service efficiency are the most consistent drivers. Trust plays a minor role, while collaboration-based organizational change yields mixed effects across con-texts. Income and age further shape attitudes toward e-services. The findings underscore the need for tailored digital strategies: while civil servants adopt out of institutional mandate, citizens decide voluntarily, based on usability, perceived benefits, and satisfaction with (digi-tal) local governance.

E-government has yet to improve the quality of public services and create public value in South Africa. Access to e-government services should improve the quality of public service. However, the Gauteng Department of Education’s online school application system has not yielded the desired outcomes for parents. Using Karunasena and Deng’s (2009) conceptual framework for evaluating public value, which includes dimensions such as the delivery of public services, achievement of desirable outcomes, development of trust, and effectiveness of the public organisation. The study's primary objective is to use the conceptual framework to evaluate whether the online school application system created public value. Additionally, the study aims to highlight the importance of social media data in measuring public value. This study will utilise data from social media, specifically from social networking sites and media-sharing services that support visual and textual content. A convenience sample of posts, replies, and comments about public perception and experiences of the online school application system will be analysed to achieve the study's objectives. Using the dimensions of the conceptual framework as themes, empirical data collected from social media platforms such as X (formerly Twitter), Facebook and Instagram were subjected to Braun and Clarke’s (2006) six-step thematic analysis. This study contributes significantly to the expanding body of knowledge of public value and the use of social media data in public administration, providing valuable insights for public officials responsible for ensuring public value.