Do politicians behave opportunistically regarding their tax proposals during the election cycle, or do they maintain ideological sincerity? The purpose of our research is to determine if U.S. governors follow political tax cycles when making proposals to change revenue structures in their annual executive budget recommendations. On the one hand, politicians might use the budget cycle to try to influence voters (Dubois 2016; Katsimi and Sarantides 2012; Nordhaus 1975; Mink and de Haan 2006; Paldam 1979; Shi and Svensson 2006). In this case, we would expect governors to be more likely to propose tax cuts during election years. On the other hand, politicians might believe that it is more important to stick to their political party's ideological position during election years (Alesina 1987; Alesina and Roubini 1992; Alesina et al. 1997; Hibbs 1977; Sakurai and Menenez-Filho 2011). In this case, we would expect Democratic governors to be more likely to propose tax increases and Republican governors to be more likely to propose tax cuts.
We examine U.S. governors’ revenue proposals between the years of 1989 and 2018 to assess gubernatorial behavior during election years. Our dependent variable is the amount of real aggregate per capita revenue change sought by the state’s governor for the coming fiscal year, from 1989 to 2018. These recommended changes represent proposals for legislative action that would increase/decrease revenue collection. Thus, the dependent variable measures proposed changes to the revenue code, as opposed to forecasted year-over-year changes to total revenues. Since the measure is continuous and theoretically unbounded, we estimate the model using OLS regression.
We find that governors, in general, do indeed follow a political budget cycle where they request lower revenues during election years. However, this finding is largely driven by Democratic governors asking for significantly lower revenues during election years when compared to non-election years. Republican governors are more ideologically sincere, maintaining behaviors that are consistent across the election cycle. This makes sense given that Democratic governors have a greater incentive to behave opportunistically when making revenue proposals. They are generally expected to seek greater spending and are often rewarded for doing so (Lowry et al 1998). Since higher spending requires more revenues, they are more ideologically sincere during non-election years, asking for greater revenues. However, high taxes can result in electoral losses (Kone and Winters 1993; Besley and Case 1995; Niemi et al 1995; Olle 2003; Geys and Vermeir 2008; Tillman and Park 2009), whereas tax cuts can yield electoral gains (Ploeg 1989; Tillman and Park 2009). Thus, they have an incentive to move away from their sincere ideological preferences during election years and behave more opportunistically. Republican governors, on the other hand, have a greater incentive to remain ideologically sincere during election years because they are generally expected to keep taxes low (Sobel 1998), making a low-tax position ideologically consistent across time.
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