Over the last 30 years, European fertility moved toward a new pattern where most women have fewer than two children, and childlessness is increasingly common. Moreover, family patterns and the ways families are created have become more complex in contemporary European societies. One topic of particular interest is the declining trend in period fertility as witnessed in all Nordic countries since the early 2010s. On the contrary, Germany has not witnessed a decline but rather the 2010s were characterized by increase and stability. In 2020, the lowest total fertility rate (TFR) among these countries was recorded in Finland (1.37), with Germany (1.53) and Norway (1.48) exhibiting similar levels, whereas TFRs in the other Nordic countries remained at a higher level (1.68–1.72). Fertility did not decline in any of these countries in response to the early Covid-19 pandemic, but there were declines in 2022. Together with Nordic colleagues, the DGD working group "Fertility and Family," aims to provide further insights into these demographic changes. We invite presentations from demographers, sociologists, and researchers from related disciplines on the following topics: recent and long-term trends in period and cohort fertility; comparative fertility analyses of European countries; fertility variation across different sub-populations; determinants of fertility intentions, family formation, and childlessness over the life course. We also welcome presentations on trends in family structures and their impacts on children.
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Fertility or pregnancy rates for understanding the declining fertility?
Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune1; Beck, Astrid Linnea2; Rizzi, Silvia1; Holmboe, Stine Agergaard2; Skakkebæk, Niels Erik2
1University of Southern Denmark, Denmark; 2Department of Growth and Reproduction, Copenhagen University Hospital – Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen, Denmark
Fertility rates have been below the sustainability level of 2.1 children per woman in most high-income countries for decades. Meanwhile, the use of artificial reproductive techniques (ART) has increased for conceiving a child. In this study, we combine nationwide information on abortions, ART and immigration to illustrate the difference in pregnancy rates and fertility rates.
We used Danish registry data on ART treatments, induced abortions and country of origin to estimate pregnancy rates and compare them to fertility rates. To include birth cohorts with not completed fertility, ART and abortion rates, these were forecasted.
Our results clearly show that pregnancy rates have declined more rapidly than fertility rates and that immigration has significantly contributed to the fertility rates seen in Denmark. The forecasted fertility and pregnancy rates suggest this pattern will continue.
We infer from our results that pregnancy rates may be more informative in understanding the fertility crisis on Earth and that biological factors could significantly contribute to the findings.
Associations between Covid-19 vaccination and fertility: interrupted time series analyses of birth rates for 22 countries
Jasilioniene, Aiva1; Jasilionis, Domantas1,2; Jdanov, Dmitri1; Myrskylä, Mikko1,2
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Germany; 2Max Planck – University of Helsinki Center for Social Inequalities in Population Health
Fertility trends underwent strong fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic. Upward and downward fertility shifts, although of varying size, occurred quite synchronously in many higher-income countries. This study focuses on the sharp downturn in monthly birth rates at the turn of the years 2021-2022, which has been rather puzzling given the relatively stable and positive fertility dynamics seen during most of 2021 in many countries. This decline in births is linked with conceptions in spring-summer 2021, when the COVID-19 vaccination effort was gathering momentum. The central aim of this study is to explore whether the rollout of COVID-19 vaccination and the fall in monthly fertility are associated. Using an interrupted time series design, the impact of two interventions – the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 and the start of COVID-19 vaccination– on the trends in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted monthly TFRs has been evaluated. The findings suggest that at least in some countries, the COVID-19 vaccination seemingly influenced childbearing behaviour and thus contributed to the decline in birth rates observed about nine months following the start of the effort. More in-depth and context-sensitive research is needed to further explore causal mechanisms underlying changes in childbearing decisions in response to the COVID-19 vaccination.
The Causal Impact of Men or Women’s Job Loss on Fertility: A Couple-Level Analysis through Norwegian Register Data.
Tyagi, Rishabh1,2; Brini, Elisa2; Vignoli, Daniele3
1MPIDR, Germany; 2University of Oslo; 3University of Florence
This study investigates the differential impact of men's or women’s job loss on fertility across different couple types: income-egalitarian vs. male-breadwinner vs. female-breadwinner and high-income vs. medium-income vs. low-income couples. We applied event history analysis with linear probability models to the Norwegian population and employment Registers for the period 2005-2017. Prior studies on the unemployment-fertility relationship did not use exogenous employment shocks and partner characteristics. We used the exogenous shock for job loss, i.e. plant (workplace) closures, to infer a causal effect of men's or women’s job loss on fertility within couples. Our results show that plant closure slightly negatively affects the probability of first birth within three years of plant closure for both males and females. However, we do not observe any significant gender differences in the probability of first birth. We also do not observe variations in the effects of plant closure across different couple types, including income-egalitarian, male-breadwinner, and female-breadwinner couples, as well as high-, medium-, and low-income couples. These results differ from studies in the UK and Germany conducted by Di Nallo & Lipps, 2023. We argue that the Nordic countries' favourable employment conditions, gender-egalitarian attitudes, and robust welfare state provisions may explain the absence of fertility response and gender differences in fertility response to plant closures. In general, experiencing plant closure does not decrease the probability of first birth in any subgroup of couples. However, a couple is less likely to have first birth if they are not a high-income or income-egalitarian couple.
Does a Civil Service Job Matter? The Effect of Civil Service Employment on the Transition to the First Child for Women and Men in Germany.
Löwe, Paul Severin
State Institute for Family Research at the University of Bamberg (ifb), Germany
This study compares the effect of civil service and private sector employment on the transition rate to the first child, considering possible effect heterogeneity of sex, contract status, partner's working status, and residence in West or East Germany.
The civil service is often associated with a family friendly work environment offering the possibility to reverse the problem of low birth rate. An influence has been demonstrated in other European countries, but Germany lacks an individual-level analysis that takes into account possible heterogeneities.
Using data from the German Family Panel (Pairfam) of 5985 employees who experienced 677 first birth events, we run discrete event history models in a piecewise-constant specification to calculate the transition to first child conditional on civil service or private sector employment.
We do not find a substantial and significant effect on fertility behaviour for either women or men. Moreover, there is no evidence of effect heterogeneity by contract status, partner’s employment, or region.
The findings indicate that the current civil service does not have the assumed potential to positively influence family formation and address the problem of low fertility in the German welfare state.
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