Conference Agenda

Seasonal trends in fertility are found in several contexts and are affected by societal and environmental factors. In particular, major social shifts could lead to changes in such trends. This paper documents how birth seasonality in East and West Germany changed across time and in particular after the reunification happened in 1989. We use birth counts by month from the Human Fertility Database divided by East and West Germany from 1946 to 2017. We normalize the number of births by the number of days in each month and construct a birth index. We then use descriptive statistics to show in which months births are concentrated across seven decades and which is the month with the highest and lowest number of births in the two regions over time. We observe similar birth seasonality in East and West Germany in the decades from 1946 to 1976 showing a peak in the first months of the year and a second peak in September. In the 70s West Germany starts to diverge showing the emergence of a single peak of births in late summer. Shortly after reunification, East Germany start to resemble the seasonal trends of fertility found in West Germany. The findings raise questions about the potential causes behind East Germany's rapid adaptation to West Germany's fertility patterns post-reunification, suggesting significant social and economic influences. This research underscores the impact of major societal changes on fertility trends, providing insight into the dynamic nature of birth seasonality within different sociopolitical contexts.

Fertility indicators traditionally focus on female reproductive behavior, neglecting the nuanced contributions of males. This study addresses this gap by conducting a subnational analysis of male and female fertility differences, utilizing high-quality register data from Australia, Finland, Germany, France, and the United States. Examining fertility timing and quantum over time and across countries, our research employs decomposition techniques and regression models to unravel the intricacies of male and female fertility disparities. The findings reveal substantial subnational disparities exceeding national-level results, emphasizing the influence of contextual factors. Population imbalances, sex-selective migration, mortality differences, and age-related fertility patterns emerge as potential explanations for observed variations. Importantly, our results underscore the limitations of relying solely on one-sex fertility indicators, emphasizing the need for nuanced approaches in fertility research.The subnational analysis brings forth previously unknown heterogeneity, surpassing insights derived from national-level studies. Assessing the impact of geographic regions, human development, and welfare states through a cross-country subnational design provides a comprehensive understanding of contextual influences on fertility. In conclusion, our research advances the understanding of male and female fertility differences, urging a reconsideration of one-sex fertility indicators. By uncovering subnational nuances, we offer a nuanced perspective that informs demographic research, policy, and societal planning.

Today, more people than ever live in one-person households (OPHs). Sweden’s OPH population started to grow in the 1960s, and today the country exhibits one of the highest proportions in the world, reaching almost 40% of all households. Despite describing Sweden and the Scandinavian countries as frontrunners, surprisingly, little is known about the long-term changes in the composition of the Swedish OPH population. Using large-scale register data covering the entire Swedish population at 5-year intervals, we analyze the development of the demographic and socioeconomic (SES) characteristics of OPHs from 1960 to 2018. In the analyses, we focus on how the composition of OPHs has changed regarding age, gender, civil status, parental status, education, income, and urban/rural context. The prime focus is on the socioeconomic determinants. Our findings show that there have been substantial changes over time, especially in the association between civil status and SES and the probability of living alone. The sharp growth of divorce in the 1970s was an important driver of increased OPHs. This was especially evident among men aged 30-45 that rarely attained custody of children before the 1990s. For SES, we find a shift from a positive to a negative gradient among women and an increasingly negative gradient among men. Today low-SES men and women in Sweden are increasingly selected into OPHs, and the SES patterns across sexes have converged.

Many studies have addressed fertility variation at the sub-national regional level among women, but our knowledge on regional variation in men’s fertility remains limited. The current study assesses gender differences in the timing and chances of entering first-time parenthood across regions. First births are an important focus in the contemporary setting, given increases in childlessness in many countries and first births’ growing importance for cross-country variation in fertility levels. We hypothesize that, based on differences in gender roles and sex ratios between regions, (i) men are subject to weaker regional variation in their first birth timing than women, (ii) gender differences in the timing of first births are less pronounced in urban centers, and (iii) these timing differences translate into similar patterns in the eventual chances of entering parenthood. This study builds on descriptive analysis and data on cohorts born in 1963–1970 in Finland, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden.