Program and schedule of sessions are subject to changes and will be adjusted and confirmed after the selection of papers has been concluded.
Abstract
The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone. During the whole pandemic, Denmark and Sweden have reported more deaths per capita (more than 200/100 000) than Finland and Denmark (150-190/100 000) or Norway and Iceland (below 110/100 000). However, the comparability of these figures has been questioned.
Further research is warranted to help distinguish the proportion of mortality that was directly or indirectly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection. Also studies on the changes in the distribution of causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic as well studies on excess mortality and its components are required.
This session welcomes contributions in the following domains:
- Trends: Contributions describing trends in life expectancies, COVID-19 deaths and distributions of causes-of-deaths during different phases of the pandemic and their associations to different countermeasures in Germany and the Nordic countries.
- COVID-19 and excess mortality differences and between population groups: Contributions investigating the mortality and its causes between (vulnerable) population groups.
- Methods: Contributions that aim to explore different measurements of life expectancies, COVID-19 deaths and excess mortality, including also future trajectories and scenarios in population statistics.
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Excess Mortality in Germany: Spatial, Cause-Specific and Seasonal Effects Associated with the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020–2022
Mühlichen, Michael; Sauerberg, Markus; Grigoriev, Pavel
Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB), Wiesbaden, Germany
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, only few studies on excess mortality have considered both cause-specific and sub-national differences. Located at the intersection of the European north-south and east-west gradients of (excess) mortality, Germany represents a fascinating context for such detailed analysis, as the German example might provide implications for the overall European pattern.
Our analyses rely on official cause-of-death statistics consisting of 7.74 million individual death records reported for the German population during 2015–2022. We conduct differential mortality analyses by age, sex, cause, month and district (N=400), using decomposition and standardisation methods, comparing each strata of the mortality level observed during 2020–2022 with its expected value.
Our results show remarkable spatial differences to the disadvantage of the south of eastern Germany in both 2020 and 2021. Excess mortality in the most affected districts is driven widely by older ages and deaths reported during the second wave, particularly from COVID-19 but also from cardiovascular and mental diseases. In 2022, however, the spatial pattern completely changed with the northwest showing the highest levels of excess mortality, while the east widely experienced a rise again in life expectancy.
The results for 2020 and 2021 suggest that increased psychosocial stress influenced the outcome of excess mortality in the most affected areas during the second wave of the pandemic. Cause-specific and seasonal data for 2022 will become available by March 2024, hopefully in time for DGD 2024, and will help us understand the fundamentally changed pattern of excess mortality.
Life Expectancy Among Immigrants in Sweden pre and during COVID-19: A Consideration of Different Origins and Types of Residence Permits.
Foresta, Daniela1; Mussino, Eleonora2; Wallace, Matthew2
1University of Rome Sapienza, Italy; 2Stockholm University
Unlike other destination countries, the overall impact of migrants on life expectancy in Sweden has not historically been positive. However, this varies depending on the country of origin of the migrants. The trend started to change in 2019. Immigrants began to positively contribute to the increase in life expectancy in Sweden, and researchers predicted that this trend would continue, except in 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic appeared.
Sweden adopted a distinctive approach to the pandemic, leading to an overall increase in mortality and a decrease in life expectancy for males and females. Prior research indicates that immigrants are more likely to die from COVID-19 in several countries, especially those from non-Western nations.
Our first aim is to understand whether the recent emergence of a positive impact of immigrants on national life expectancy in Sweden can be attributed to refugees. Swede has a diverse immigrant population in terms of country of origin and reasons for migration. As previously mentioned, life expectancy among migrants varies significantly based on country of origin, but it could change due to the reason for migration. Refugee health is more at risk than that of other migrants since the entire migration process—including leaving the country, travelling, and requesting asylum in the destination country— is associated with stressful and risky circumstances.
Our second aim is to understand how much the COVID-19 pandemic and its disproportionate impact upon international immigrants, interrupted the positive contribution that migrants started to make to life expectancy levels.
We fulfil these two aims we will use Swedish register population data that allows very detailed information.
No Excess Deaths Among Children in Europe 2021- 2022
Karlinsky, Ariel
Hebrew University, Israel
There are claims of significant excess mortality among children (ages 0 to 14) in Europe during 2021 and 2022. Evaluation of raw data and excess mortality analysis show that children deaths in 2021-2022 are completely in-line with deaths from previous years in most European countries, and in many cases even lower. Across 35 European countries, among children ages 0 to 14 up to July 31st 2022 there are 330 less deaths than expected, with a confidence interval of [-770, 104].
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