Population ageing poses various challenges for health and social systems. One possible policy response to population ageing is higher immigration which is controversially discussed in many countries. Studies on replacement migration however have shown that immigration can barely be seen as the sole solution to population ageing in developed countries. In Denmark, municipalities are fully responsible for the provision, delivery, and financing of elderly care within the country. Hence, challenges due to an increasing share of older persons are not only pertinent to national-level policies but are especially relevant at the regional and local levels.

Combining data from Statistics Denmark with Eurostat’s EUROPOP2019 projections, we show spatial differences in population ageing for 11 Danish NUTS-3-regions and 98 municipalities. To assess the potential of migration to counteract population ageing, we estimate the theoretical amount of migration needed to maintain the age structure (2023-2050) and compare it to recent migration rates. To take varying life expectancy into account, we adopt the prospective age approach. This concept is based on the idea that characteristics (such as health) depend more on the average remaining life expectancy than on chronological age.

Our results reveal notable differences in the level of population ageing across Danish regions. The prospective old-age dependency ratio (ratio between prospective old-age population and prospective working-age population) is lowest in urban and highest in rural regions. Moreover, even within regions, we find considerable spatial variation between municipalities. These differences in age structure are also reflected in the magnitude of net migration potentially needed to offset population ageing in the next decades. Given recent migration rates, offsetting population ageing through higher immigration seems to be an unrealistic scenario in most regions. Our analyses underline the importance of regional policy and planning to deal with the specific challenges of population ageing in Danish regions.

Urban and spatial demography have long focused on trends in urbanization and suburbanization and their demographic determinants. Population shifts across the urban-rural continuum can alter local demographics, affecting housing and social infrastructure accessibility for various demographic subgroups. In the context of suburban areas in Europe, especially Germany, there is consensus that most countries are undergoing suburbanization. Yet, detailed understanding of its effects at finer spatial scales, which could distinguish suburban from rural population changes, remains scarce. While remotely-sensed data has proven valuable for urbanization analysis based on urban forms, these approaches often lack direct ties to population data. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by combining a novel urban-rural gradient classification with gridded census and register-based population data to analyze urbanization and suburbanization trends in Germany between 2011 and 2021. Results point to a general trend of metropolitan growth, with an increase in urban and suburban populations, at a ratio of approximately 2:1. Population increased to a lesser extent in rural areas and towns not part of the 80 largest cities’ agglomerations. Statistic tests show that differences in growth rates among the settlement types are significant. These results may help to contextualize suburbanization trends observed from internal migration data.

Most population-level evidence on the link between the reproductive history of women and their post-reproductive mortality is based on high-income countries with population registers. Here we enhance the existing population-level evidence by analysing data that was collected as part of the population register of the Communist German Democratic Republic (GDR). We use a 100% individual-level sample of the GDR census of 1981, and the complete mortality register data for the years 1982-1990. A comparison with Sweden, where fertility trends were very similar at the time, will allow us to explore whether the link between fertility outcomes and post-reproductive mortality differs dependent on the political and economic context. Based on Cox proportional hazard models, using women with two children as the reference group, first findings for the East German GDR show that mortality differences by number of children born are more attenuated than in other countries. This seems to be mostly driven by deaths due to neoplasm and external causes. For cardiovascular diseases, other causes and all-cause mortality, however, we identify a typical u-shaped pattern where women with two children are displaying the lowest mortality. Over the next months, we will specify a similar model for Sweden, allowing us to present at the DGD a direct comparison between East Germany and Sweden. In addition, we will extend our analysis of the GDR data, by, for example, taking socio-economic characteristics and type of occupation into account.