The Nordic model has been seen as recipe for combining high fertility and high maternal labor supply. Central European countries have in contrast been characterized by more limited support to families and lower fertility. In the recent decades, this apparent contrast is unravelling. In Central Europe, there has been large expansions in supports to families, and fertility has increased. At the same time, fertility has plummeted in the Nordic countries, despite continued extensive family support. As a result, TFR in Germany and the Nordics has converged. In this talk, I discuss how change and stability in family policies relate to fertility change, using the Nordic countries and Germany as contrasting cases. I discuss whether the increases in fertility in Germany is likely to be a temporary “honeymoon effect” due to improved policies. I anchor reflections on efficient fertility policies for future in lessons from the contrasting cases.

Globally WHO has reported 774 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 infections and 7 million deaths with uneven distribution of disease burden between the WHO Regions. As for December 2023, the Nordic countries reported 9.4 million cases (34/100 inhabitants), which is less than in Germany (38.4 million, 46/100). According to WHO, there were 51 500 COVID-19 deaths in the Nordic countries (188/100 000) and 175 000 (210/100 000) in Germany in 2020-2023. The Nordic average, however, hides a five-fold difference between Iceland (51/100 000) and Sweden (249/100 000).

Measuring COVID-19 mortality is difficult, since countries have had different practices how to gather information on deaths related to COVID-19. Originally WHO recommended countries to report all deaths within 30 days of confirmed infections (deaths with COVID-19). Increasingly, countries report deaths directly or indirectly caused by COVID-19. International statistics is a mixture of these measurements, which hampers their comparability.