Population ageing poses various challenges for health and social systems. One possible policy response to population ageing is higher immigration which is controversially discussed in many countries. Studies on replacement migration however have shown that immigration can barely be seen as the sole solution to population ageing in developed countries. In Denmark, municipalities are fully responsible for the provision, delivery, and financing of elderly care within the country. Hence, challenges due to an increasing share of older persons are not only pertinent to national-level policies but are especially relevant at the regional and local levels.

Combining data from Statistics Denmark with Eurostat’s EUROPOP2019 projections, we show spatial differences in population ageing for 11 Danish NUTS-3-regions and 98 municipalities. To assess the potential of migration to counteract population ageing, we estimate the theoretical amount of migration needed to maintain the age structure (2023-2050) and compare it to recent migration rates. To take varying life expectancy into account, we adopt the prospective age approach. This concept is based on the idea that characteristics (such as health) depend more on the average remaining life expectancy than on chronological age.

Our results reveal notable differences in the level of population ageing across Danish regions. The prospective old-age dependency ratio (ratio between prospective old-age population and prospective working-age population) is lowest in urban and highest in rural regions. Moreover, even within regions, we find considerable spatial variation between municipalities. These differences in age structure are also reflected in the magnitude of net migration potentially needed to offset population ageing in the next decades. Given recent migration rates, offsetting population ageing through higher immigration seems to be an unrealistic scenario in most regions. Our analyses underline the importance of regional policy and planning to deal with the specific challenges of population ageing in Danish regions.

Urban and spatial demography have long focused on trends in urbanization and suburbanization and their demographic determinants. Population shifts across the urban-rural continuum can alter local demographics, affecting housing and social infrastructure accessibility for various demographic subgroups. In the context of suburban areas in Europe, especially Germany, there is consensus that most countries are undergoing suburbanization. Yet, detailed understanding of its effects at finer spatial scales, which could distinguish suburban from rural population changes, remains scarce. While remotely-sensed data has proven valuable for urbanization analysis based on urban forms, these approaches often lack direct ties to population data. This paper seeks to bridge this gap by combining a novel urban-rural gradient classification with gridded census and register-based population data to analyze urbanization and suburbanization trends in Germany between 2011 and 2021. Results point to a general trend of metropolitan growth, with an increase in urban and suburban populations, at a ratio of approximately 2:1. Population increased to a lesser extent in rural areas and towns not part of the 80 largest cities’ agglomerations. Statistic tests show that differences in growth rates among the settlement types are significant. These results may help to contextualize suburbanization trends observed from internal migration data.

Most population-level evidence on the link between the reproductive history of women and their post-reproductive mortality is based on high-income countries with population registers. Here we enhance the existing population-level evidence by analysing data that was collected as part of the population register of the Communist German Democratic Republic (GDR). We use a 100% individual-level sample of the GDR census of 1981, and the complete mortality register data for the years 1982-1990. A comparison with Sweden, where fertility trends were very similar at the time, will allow us to explore whether the link between fertility outcomes and post-reproductive mortality differs dependent on the political and economic context. Based on Cox proportional hazard models, using women with two children as the reference group, first findings for the East German GDR show that mortality differences by number of children born are more attenuated than in other countries. This seems to be mostly driven by deaths due to neoplasm and external causes. For cardiovascular diseases, other causes and all-cause mortality, however, we identify a typical u-shaped pattern where women with two children are displaying the lowest mortality. Over the next months, we will specify a similar model for Sweden, allowing us to present at the DGD a direct comparison between East Germany and Sweden. In addition, we will extend our analysis of the GDR data, by, for example, taking socio-economic characteristics and type of occupation into account.

Personality plays an essential role with respect to important life outcomes such as education or career success. Although these outcomes are linked with family formation processes, the association between personality and family formation (dissolution) has been underexplored in demographic research. My study contributes to existing research by examining the prospective association between two personality facets (social maturity (SM), and emotional stability (ES)) and family formation and dissolution processes, i.e. 1) marital status, 2) fertility, and 3) partnership dissolution as both a) divorce and b) cohabitation dissolution, based on large Swedish register data. Poisson regression, Linear Probability, and Cox proportional hazard models were applied for different outcomes. My findings suggest that males with high scores on SM and ES measured at age of assignment to military service (17-20 years) are more likely to get married by age 39 and higher. Regarding fertility, SM and ES reveal positive associations with offspring counts and negative associations with the probability of remaining childless by age 39 and higher. Relationship dissolution is negatively linked with SM and ES, in particular among the lowest personality scores. Further analyses using sibling comparisons support these findings.

Recent work has demonstrated the impact of first union dynamics, both formations and dissolutions, on population composition in low fertility contexts. In light of the potential importance of first union dynamics in contexts where it is becoming more urgent to understand the underlying drivers of population change, we examine the nexus between union dynamics and immigration in Finland, a country with a relatively new immigration regime and low cohort fertility projected to continue declining.

Using a survival analysis framework and complete Finnish register data on all women aged 18-65 registered as residents in the country spanning 1987-2020, we compare the heterosexual union dynamic patterns among immigrants and their descendants, by identifying which characteristics, such as education and region of origin, moderate first union (cohabitations and marriages) formations and dissolutions. We distinguish between 1st generation immigrants, 2nd generation immigrants (those with two 1st generation parents), and the 2.5 generation (those with one Finnish and one 1st generation parent).

Preliminary work suggests that women in the 2nd and 2.5 generation were overall less likely to enter a first union compared to native Finnish women, and that among the available couple immigrant pairing typologies, couples made of two 1st generation immigrants show the lowest rate of first union dissolution at 44.76%, while couples made up of two 2nd generation immigrants show the highest rate of first union dissolution at 71.40%. Studying these union dynamic patterns offers insights into how subsequent generations in Finland will form, continue in, and dissolve unions.

This study examines the dynamic interplay of parental partnership transitions and mental health outcomes among mothers and fathers, utilizing Finnish register data. Following both parents within a family over their firstborn child’s childhood, we employ random effects linear probability models to analyze various transition scenarios following parental separation.

The analysis spans from one year before to four years after each transition, offering a detailed exploration of maternal and paternal mental health trajectories. Moving beyond individual outcomes, we investigate the interconnected nature of family dynamics, specifically examining how parental partnership transitions influence the mental health outcomes of both mothers and fathers. Exploring whether transitions, such as mothers or fathers repartnering, affect the mental health of the other parent, even when their own partnership status remains unchanged, contributes to a deeper understanding of reciprocal effects within parent dyads.

Preliminary results indicate that overall, mothers experience poorer mental health compared to fathers. Repartnering immediately after separation or following a period of singlehood leads to short-term improvements in mental health, but levels eventually adjust to previous states for both mothers and fathers. Notably, repartnering of both mothers and fathers positively influences the mental health of the other separated parent, even when their partnership status remains unchanged. Moreover, parental reconciliation improves the mental health of both mothers and fathers.

These findings suggest that after a separation, parents remain closely connected, and partnership transitions of the ex-partner influence their own mental health. One explanation for this could be that, in the sense of the linked lives concept, separated parents remain highly dependent on each other, possibly through shared parenting responsibilities or the child’s well-being. Furthermore, the preliminary findings not only advance the understanding of reciprocal effects within parent dyads but also the general understanding of the association of parental separation, repartnering, and reconciliation with mental health.

Individuals who experience divorce in childhood are more likely to divorce themselves as adults. Notably, the magnitude of the intergenerational divorce transmission is stronger for groups among whom divorce is rare. This transmission may reflect differences in family behaviours passed on from parent to child, or stem from differences in social norms between sub-groups. Sociologists and demographers have struggled to disentangle socioeconomic factors and norms, because groups that are less wealthy tend to have higher divorce rates. Here we use data from Finland, where two native ethnolinguistic groups with comparable socioeconomic characteristics – but different divorce risks – live side by side; Swedish speakers and Finnish speakers (5% and 90% of the population, respectively). Using register data on the entire population from 1987 onwards, we examine separation risk as a function of parental divorce (couples n= 554,337, separations n= 309,676, total years at risk 4,890,095). Cox regressions demonstrate that risk of separation is higher for couples where both sets of parents had divorce than if only one set of parents had divorced, adjusted for a range of demographic and socioeconomic covariates. Moreover, the intergenerational transmission is greater among Swedish speakers, who have an overall lower separation rate. These group differences in separation risk persist even after controlling for socioeconomic factors and each partner’s experience of parental divorce. Notably, Finnish-speaking couples who reside in Swedish-dominated areas have both somewhat lower separation risk, and higher intergenerational transmission than their peers in Finnish-dominated areas. These results point to a social transmission of separation, over and above socioeconomic causes. The role of geographic (im)mobility of the Swedish-speaking minority, social cohesion and partner markets are discussed.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, only few studies on excess mortality have considered both cause-specific and sub-national differences. Located at the intersection of the European north-south and east-west gradients of (excess) mortality, Germany represents a fascinating context for such detailed analysis, as the German example might provide implications for the overall European pattern.

Our analyses rely on official cause-of-death statistics consisting of 7.74 million individual death records reported for the German population during 2015–2022. We conduct differential mortality analyses by age, sex, cause, month and district (N=400), using decomposition and standardisation methods, comparing each strata of the mortality level observed during 2020–2022 with its expected value.

Our results show remarkable spatial differences to the disadvantage of the south of eastern Germany in both 2020 and 2021. Excess mortality in the most affected districts is driven widely by older ages and deaths reported during the second wave, particularly from COVID-19 but also from cardiovascular and mental diseases. In 2022, however, the spatial pattern completely changed with the northwest showing the highest levels of excess mortality, while the east widely experienced a rise again in life expectancy.

The results for 2020 and 2021 suggest that increased psychosocial stress influenced the outcome of excess mortality in the most affected areas during the second wave of the pandemic. Cause-specific and seasonal data for 2022 will become available by March 2024, hopefully in time for DGD 2024, and will help us understand the fundamentally changed pattern of excess mortality.

Unlike other destination countries, the overall impact of migrants on life expectancy in Sweden has not historically been positive. However, this varies depending on the country of origin of the migrants. The trend started to change in 2019. Immigrants began to positively contribute to the increase in life expectancy in Sweden, and researchers predicted that this trend would continue, except in 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic appeared.

Sweden adopted a distinctive approach to the pandemic, leading to an overall increase in mortality and a decrease in life expectancy for males and females. Prior research indicates that immigrants are more likely to die from COVID-19 in several countries, especially those from non-Western nations.

Our first aim is to understand whether the recent emergence of a positive impact of immigrants on national life expectancy in Sweden can be attributed to refugees. Swede has a diverse immigrant population in terms of country of origin and reasons for migration. As previously mentioned, life expectancy among migrants varies significantly based on country of origin, but it could change due to the reason for migration. Refugee health is more at risk than that of other migrants since the entire migration process—including leaving the country, travelling, and requesting asylum in the destination country— is associated with stressful and risky circumstances.

Our second aim is to understand how much the COVID-19 pandemic and its disproportionate impact upon international immigrants, interrupted the positive contribution that migrants started to make to life expectancy levels.

We fulfil these two aims we will use Swedish register population data that allows very detailed information.

There are claims of significant excess mortality among children (ages 0 to 14) in Europe during 2021 and 2022. Evaluation of raw data and excess mortality analysis show that children deaths in 2021-2022 are completely in-line with deaths from previous years in most European countries, and in many cases even lower. Across 35 European countries, among children ages 0 to 14 up to July 31st 2022 there are 330 less deaths than expected, with a confidence interval of [-770, 104].

Seasonal trends in fertility are found in several contexts and are affected by societal and environmental factors. In particular, major social shifts could lead to changes in such trends. This paper documents how birth seasonality in East and West Germany changed across time and in particular after the reunification happened in 1989. We use birth counts by month from the Human Fertility Database divided by East and West Germany from 1946 to 2017. We normalize the number of births by the number of days in each month and construct a birth index. We then use descriptive statistics to show in which months births are concentrated across seven decades and which is the month with the highest and lowest number of births in the two regions over time. We observe similar birth seasonality in East and West Germany in the decades from 1946 to 1976 showing a peak in the first months of the year and a second peak in September. In the 70s West Germany starts to diverge showing the emergence of a single peak of births in late summer. Shortly after reunification, East Germany start to resemble the seasonal trends of fertility found in West Germany. The findings raise questions about the potential causes behind East Germany's rapid adaptation to West Germany's fertility patterns post-reunification, suggesting significant social and economic influences. This research underscores the impact of major societal changes on fertility trends, providing insight into the dynamic nature of birth seasonality within different sociopolitical contexts.

Fertility indicators traditionally focus on female reproductive behavior, neglecting the nuanced contributions of males. This study addresses this gap by conducting a subnational analysis of male and female fertility differences, utilizing high-quality register data from Australia, Finland, Germany, France, and the United States. Examining fertility timing and quantum over time and across countries, our research employs decomposition techniques and regression models to unravel the intricacies of male and female fertility disparities. The findings reveal substantial subnational disparities exceeding national-level results, emphasizing the influence of contextual factors. Population imbalances, sex-selective migration, mortality differences, and age-related fertility patterns emerge as potential explanations for observed variations. Importantly, our results underscore the limitations of relying solely on one-sex fertility indicators, emphasizing the need for nuanced approaches in fertility research.The subnational analysis brings forth previously unknown heterogeneity, surpassing insights derived from national-level studies. Assessing the impact of geographic regions, human development, and welfare states through a cross-country subnational design provides a comprehensive understanding of contextual influences on fertility. In conclusion, our research advances the understanding of male and female fertility differences, urging a reconsideration of one-sex fertility indicators. By uncovering subnational nuances, we offer a nuanced perspective that informs demographic research, policy, and societal planning.

Today, more people than ever live in one-person households (OPHs). Sweden’s OPH population started to grow in the 1960s, and today the country exhibits one of the highest proportions in the world, reaching almost 40% of all households. Despite describing Sweden and the Scandinavian countries as frontrunners, surprisingly, little is known about the long-term changes in the composition of the Swedish OPH population. Using large-scale register data covering the entire Swedish population at 5-year intervals, we analyze the development of the demographic and socioeconomic (SES) characteristics of OPHs from 1960 to 2018. In the analyses, we focus on how the composition of OPHs has changed regarding age, gender, civil status, parental status, education, income, and urban/rural context. The prime focus is on the socioeconomic determinants. Our findings show that there have been substantial changes over time, especially in the association between civil status and SES and the probability of living alone. The sharp growth of divorce in the 1970s was an important driver of increased OPHs. This was especially evident among men aged 30-45 that rarely attained custody of children before the 1990s. For SES, we find a shift from a positive to a negative gradient among women and an increasingly negative gradient among men. Today low-SES men and women in Sweden are increasingly selected into OPHs, and the SES patterns across sexes have converged.

Many studies have addressed fertility variation at the sub-national regional level among women, but our knowledge on regional variation in men’s fertility remains limited. The current study assesses gender differences in the timing and chances of entering first-time parenthood across regions. First births are an important focus in the contemporary setting, given increases in childlessness in many countries and first births’ growing importance for cross-country variation in fertility levels. We hypothesize that, based on differences in gender roles and sex ratios between regions, (i) men are subject to weaker regional variation in their first birth timing than women, (ii) gender differences in the timing of first births are less pronounced in urban centers, and (iii) these timing differences translate into similar patterns in the eventual chances of entering parenthood. This study builds on descriptive analysis and data on cohorts born in 1963–1970 in Finland, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden.

This article examines the fertility patterns of a growing group of parents – female same-sex couples (FSSC) with children – and through comparisons with mothers in different-sex couples (DSC) simultaneously examines mechanisms behind the earnings impact of motherhood. Using Norwegian population wide administrative records from 2002, when same-sex parenthood was legally recognized, until 2017, we find that FSSC's propensity to have children is heavily skewed toward the end of the period, that they more seldom have a second child, and that those who do switch birth parent for the second child in about 50% of cases. These patterns may partially be explained by barriers for FSSC to have (multiple) children, such as access to reproductive technologies being expensive, legally restricted, and geographically far in-between. Comparing the earnings losses of partners in FSSC where both partners gave birth, or where only one partner carried children, we conclude that the choice of birth mother of the first and second child have short term, but no long term, impacts on mothers’ earnings. Likewise, comparing non-birth mothers whose partner carried one versus two children, shows that an additional child to care for in the family did not affect earnings of the non-birth parent. However, when comparing mothers in FSSC to mothers in DSC that gave birth the same number of times, with the same number of children in the family, we find that having a male rather than a female partner is the mechanism that can explain most of women’s earnings losses after parenthood. Thus, our results indicate that gender norms of mothers as caregivers and fathers as breadwinners, indicated by the presence of a male partner, has a greater influence on long-term earnings losses compared to number of pregnancies and number of children, respectively.

Our study examines the prevalence of gender transitions in Sweden over time and documents the sociodemographic characteristics of people transitioning in different periods. We use national administrative data covering the transgender population from 1973 to 2020 and analyze two common events in a gender transition: the earliest diagnosis of gender incongruence and the change of legal gender. We have three main findings. First, the measured prevalence of both types of events is relatively low in all periods, although it has increased substantially since the early 2010s. Second, the recent increase in transition prevalence is most pronounced among people in early adulthood; in particular, young transgender men drive an increase in overall transition rates through 2018, followed by moderate declines in 2019 and 2020. Third, transgender men and women have substantially lower socioeconomic outcomes than cisgender men and women, regardless of the age at which they transition or the historical period.

Despite considerable convergence, gender gaps in the labour market remain substantial across countries and can largely be attributed to the differential impact of parenthood on men and women. While family policies, such as childcare provision, have proven effective in enhancing maternal labour market outcomes in the short term, their impact on fathers' involvement in child-rearing remains less explored. Fathers' engagement is crucial for challenging traditional gender norms and narrowing long-term gender gaps. This study investigates how the availability of universal childcare affects fathers' early involvement in raising children and a more equal division of childcare responsibilities throughout early childhood. In particular, we are interested in the effect on fathers' parental leave-taking after birth and their subsequent involvement in parental childcare. For our analyses, we use data from the DJI Childcare Study (KiBS), providing annual individual-level information on childcare needs and arrangements throughout childhood, along with fathers' parental leave-taking and childcare rates from administrative data at the county level from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany.

The introduction of a legal claim in Germany in 2013 for publicly funded childcare for children below the age of three years created a quasi-experimental variation in the regional availability of childcare, as the speed of childcare expansion varied substantially across municipalities. Using this exogenous variation in childcare availability, we estimate a two-way fixed effects specification. Preliminary results indicate that a higher childcare rate in the year preceding birth leads to earlier childcare entry (below 18 months). Additionally, a higher pre-birth childcare rate significantly increases fathers' uptake of parental leave. However, this increase in paternal leave-taking does not translate into higher involvement of fathers in parental childcare in the short term. Our analyses shed light on the interplay between various family policies and consider paternal behaviour within family dynamics.

Despite improvements, European LGBQ populations (sexual minorities) continue to face structural obstacles, interpersonal discrimination, and social norms opposing family formation. During the more than 25 years that same-sex partnerships have been legal in Sweden, policy protections for parenting in same-sex couples have slowly strengthened. For example, adoption protections have been strengthened for nonbiological same-sex parents, and female same-sex couples have gained access to in vitro fertilization. How has the sociodemographic composition of people in parenting same-sex couples changed during this time? We use administrative data from Swedish population registers covering the period 1996-2021. Analyses document historical changes in the sociodemographic characteristics of Swedes aged 20-60 who are in same-sex unions and living with at least one child, compared to those in childless same-sex unions and to those in different-sex unions who are and are not parenting. Our preliminary analyses have found that gender differences in parenthood within same-sex couples are increasingly stratifying same-sex marriage by gender, parental status, and socioeconomic status. As of 2021 a majority of female same-sex unions now involve parenting at least one child, in stark contrast to male same-sex couples. In recent years, people in parenting same-sex couples no longer tend to have had a previous marriage. For both women and men and increasingly over time, those in same-sex unions who are parenting have higher socioeconomic status than those in childless same-sex unions. Emerging trends over time, in tandem with substantial policy changes for same-sex families, point to new patterns in childbearing and parenting among female and male same-sex couples in Sweden.

Understanding the relationship between life expectancy at birth (e₀) and the gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) is relevant for cohesion policies in the European Union (EU) because it might imply that economic convergence (or divergence) is accompanied by narrowing (or widening) health gaps. Previous studies have studied the association between GDPpc and e₀ almost exclusively based on national data. It is certainly more appropriate, however, to study the relationship at the subnational level because levels and trends in both variables, e₀ and GDPpc, vary substantially across Europe’s regions. Accordingly, the aim of our study is examining, whether economic performance of regions predict their e₀ level. We build Preston curves from regression models using regional data for 19 European countries, divided into 535 regions. Mortality data comes from statistical offices and GDPpc can be obtained from the Eurostat database. The period 2005 to 2018 is particularly interesting as it immediately follows the EU enlargement to central-eastern European countries in 2004. In our analysis, spatial units refer to NUTS-2 or NUTS-3 regions, depending on the size of the country. Our preliminary results suggest that there is indeed a positive association between GDPpc and e₀. Similarly, to Preston’s original analysis, we observe an upward shift in the curve, indicating that factors exogenous to a region’s GDPpc level play an important role in explaining e₀ gains as well. In the next step, we plan to employ panel data regression techniques to assess the impact of GDPpc on mortality for the period 2005 to 2018. We are confident that our comprehensive dataset and suggested robust regression techniques will enable us to further examine whether levels and trends in e₀ can be linked to the economic development of European regions.

The social gradient in mortality was much more modest in historical Sweden than it is contemporarily, and for men was reversed with higher mortality for white-collar workers than for blue-collar workers before the second world war. In this paper, we present evidence that even in the absence of a modern social gradient in mortality, family members share a survival advantage at adult ages across generations. Social, behavioral and biological factors that promote good health accumulate in families, even if the mechanisms that promote long lives change across time.

We use a unique dataset consisting of digitized and linked historical records for a region in Southern Sweden, reconstructing lives and families of individuals living in five rural parishes and a town 1900-1967 with nationwide follow-up in the Swedish national registers of these individuals and their descendants 1968-2015. We show evidence that individuals (age 30-90) from well-performing families have a mortality advantage across time, even in the absence of a modern social gradient in mortality. Analyses of cause-specific mortality shows that both preventable and non-preventable disease mortality is reduced in descendants of long-lived families, providing evidence that both behavioral and non-behavioral factors are involved.

There has been a long-standing debate concerning the relative importance of space and place vs. individual characteristics for mortality. In this paper, we analyze the association of lifetime SES-status/income and mortality at older ages among retired German men and its variation at the sub-national level. Does the income gradient in mortality differ across sub-national macro-regions and types of settlement? To answer this question, we employ a large administrative dataset of the German Pension Fund consisting of 17 Mio person-years of exposure and 585.9 thousand deaths that have occurred over the period 2012–2017 among men aged 65–84. We estimate relative mortality risk using a Cox proportional hazard model. To quantify the steepness of the gradients and be able to compare them between different places of Germany we estimate the Slope Index of Inequality and the Relative Index of Inequality. Our preliminary results suggest a linear income-mortality relationship across all macro-regions and types of settlement: the risk of dying decreases as income increases. However, the degree of inequalities between different settlements and the steepness of mortality gradients vary substantially within the country. In particular, regardless of the sub-national macro-region, big cities reveal the highest degree of disparities across income groups.