Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
SAT 1-3: Fixed Income
Time:
Saturday, 06/Dec/2025:
10:50am - 11:45am


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Presentations

A Nascent International Financial Channel of China’s Monetary Policy Transmission

Chang Ma1, Alessandro Rebucci2, Sili Zhou3

1Fudan University; 2Johns Hopkins University; 3University of Macau, Macau S.A.R. (China)

Chinese private portfolio equity outflows, though small compared to other Chinese out-flows, are growing rapidly because of capital account liberalization and capital flight. Using granular stock-holding data for the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) mutual funds, we identify a nascent financial channel of international transmission of Chinese mon-etary policy to world stocks. A difference-in-differences analysis around monetary policy announcements reveals that monetary policy tightening depresses returns of country equity indexes and individual U.S. stocks with higher QDII fund exposure relative to less exposed assets. The results are robust to controlling for the real transmission channel of Chinese mon-etary policy and other confounders. The effect is driven by smaller and less liquid firms, but not solely by China-concept stocks or those highly exposed to China’s macroeconomic shocks. Furthermore, we find that the documented results are driven by household portfolio rebalanc-ing from more to less risky assets following the announcement. We validate our empirical findings with a similar international asset return analysis in the run-up to the annual Spring Festival, when liquidity demand increases on a seasonal basis, finding consistent results.