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SAT 2-2: Corporate Bonds
Time:
Saturday, 06/Dec/2025:
9:40am - 10:35am
Presentations
What Drives Global Corporate Bond Returns?
Jiarui Deng 1 , Kewei Hou2 , Zhan Shi1
1 PBC School of Finance, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100083, China; 2 Fisher College of Business, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210
This paper examines the predictability in the cross-sectional returns of corporate bonds across 112 countries and 35 currencies. With a broad set of bond- and issuer-specific return forecasting characteristics, we document significant heterogeneity in their effectiveness across different markets. Specifically, equity-linked characteristics exhibit robust and economically meaningful predictive power, highlighting imperfect integration between equity and credit markets. Our analysis further establishes the dominance of a global corporate bond market factor: alternative bond risk factors contribute little incremental explanatory power beyond this global factor, and it outperforms the domestic counterpart in multi-country settings. The above findings contrast with equity market evidence, suggesting that global bond return comovements are driven by a shared systemic risk component rather than idiosyncratic local risks.