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Session Overview
Session
Announcements & Asset Returns - 1
Time:
Saturday, 14/Dec/2024:
8:30am - 9:25am

Session Chair: Hengjie Ai, University of Wisconsin-Madison
Discussant: Shen Zhao, University of Macau
Location: 9B301 (3rd basement floor, International Hall)


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Presentations

The Pre-Announcement Drift in China: Government Meetings and Macro Announcements

Qing Peng1, Jun Pan2

1Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University; 2Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance at Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Confirming the conventional wisdom that China is a top-down economy with policydriven markets, we document a significant pre-Govt return of 42 basis points on Chinese equity over the 48-hour window before the announcement of the top government meetings. Similar to the pre-FOMC drift in U.S. equity, this pre-Govt drift in China is significantly larger than that before the macro announcements, demonstrating the unique importance of top government meetings in China. Explaining the pre-Govt returns, we identify two distinct drivers. Under high market volatility, the heightened uncertainty channel of Hu et al. (2022) dominates and the premium for heightened uncertainty (i.e., the pre-Govt drift) escalates to 91 basis points. Meanwhile, institutional investors over-sell equity as the heightened uncertainty builds up, and then over-buy upon its subsequent resolution before the announcements. Under low market volatility, the pre-Govt drift disappears and we document instead an information channel, where the pre-Govt returns are predictive of the post-Govt returns.


Peng-The Pre-Announcement Drift in China-143.pdf


 
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