Conference Agenda

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Session Overview
Session
Cross-Section Stocks - 2
Time:
Sunday, 15/Dec/2024:
3:10pm - 4:05pm

Session Chair: Dong Lou, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Discussant: Jiaxing Tian, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
Location: 9B320 (3rd basement floor, International Hall)


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Presentations

Does Peer-Reviewed Research Help Predict Stock Returns?

Andrew Chen1, Alejandro Lopez-Lira2, Tom Zimmermann3

1Federal Reserve Board; 2University of Florida; 3University of Cologne

Mining 29,000 accounting ratios for t-statistics over 2.0 leads to cross-sectional return predictability similar to the peer review process. For both methods, about 50% of predictability remains after the original sample periods. Predictors supported by peer-reviewed risk explanations or equilibrium models underperform other predictors post-sample, suggesting peer review systematically mislabels mispricing as risk, though only 20% of predictors are labelled as risk. Data mining generates other features of peer review including the rise in returns as original sample periods end and the speed of post-sample decay. It also uncovers themes like investment, issuance, and accruals---decades before they are published.


Chen-Does Peer-Reviewed Research Help Predict Stock Returns-519.pdf


 
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