SFS Cavalcade Asia-Pacific 2024
Department of FinTech, SKK Business School at
Sungkyunkwan University in Seoul, South Korea
December 13-15, 2024
Conference Agenda
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Session Overview |
Session | ||
Behavioral Finance - 3
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Presentations | ||
Dynamic Trading and Asset Pricing with Time-Inconsistent Agents 1UCLA Anderson School of Management; 2BI Norwegian Business School, Norway Recent survey evidence suggests that personal experiences have a strong influence on the individual’s attitude towards time and impatience. Embedding this feature in a general equilibrium model, we show that even a small fraction of time-inconsistent investors with time-varying degree of short-termism cause variation in discount rates over time. As a result, the consumption of time-consistent agents is negatively correlated with discount rates, and therefore they require a compensation for this extra risk. In a setting with Epstein-Zin utility and constant risk preferences this risk helps to explain a plethora of asset pricing puzzles, even when consumption and dividend growth are i.i.d. In particular, it generates a substantial time-varying risk premium, variance premium, cross-sectional predictability, upward sloping yield curve, and high trading volume. A unique prediction of our model is that the forecast error of expected consumption growth, proxied by the subjective consumption growth mean and standard deviation, can forecast the excess market return and real risk-free rate, which we show finds support in actual US survey data.
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